Decoding: How Sengottaiyan’s exit may affect BJP’s plans, electoral prospects with AIADMK

AIADMK stalwart K A Sengottaiyan, who resigned from his MLA post, on Thursday joined actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), marking a significant shift in Tamil Nadu politics, with substantial implications for the BJP, which is trying hard to make inroads in the key southern state.

Sengottaiyan, who was not happy with the party leadership under Edappadi K Palaniswami, was expelled from AIADMK due to alleged anti-party activities.
He was advocating for the reunification of the party’s various factions, bringing back expelled leaders like O Panneerselvam (OPS), T T V Dhinakaran, and V K Sasikala, saying that a united AIADMK was essential for the party to defeat the ruling DMK in the 2026 Assembly elections.

Advertisement

He also publicly claimed that the BJP had invited him for talks to bring the different AIADMK factions together. His move to TVK, a newbie, brings to the table experienced political leadership and a personal vote base. Therefore, in both ways, Sengottaiyan’s exit may not be good news for the BJP, which is counting on AIADMK’s traditional leadership and organisational strength to gain power in Tamil Nadu — a so-far challenging task for the saffron party.

The BJP’s prospects in Tamil Nadu primarily revolve around its alliance strategy with AIADMK—and that is the bottom line.

Though according to BJP leaders, Sengottaiyan’s departure “will not impact either the coalition or its prospects — it is their internal party matter.” The saffron response to his resignation from AIADMK and joining TVK has been that this internal change will not affect the BJP-AIADMK alliance. Tamil Nadu BJP leader Tamilisai Soundararajan described the resignation as unfortunate but a personal decision that would not impact the strength or electoral prospects of the alliance. She also accused the ruling DMK of spreading rumours to create confusion, saying that the alliance remains strong, and expressed confidence about winning the upcoming elections.

Nonetheless, the BJP–AIADMK alliance faces challenging prospects in Tamil Nadu; sources suggest the partnership remains fragile, with internal fissures. The BJP’s growing vote share of about 11 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has increased its demand for a larger role and more seats, causing friction within the alliance. AIADMK views the BJP’s rise cautiously. Despite drawing a blank, the BJP increased its vote share to double digits without any alliance partner. Given the cultural, ideological, and political differences between the two, analysts often describe the BJP–AIADMK partnership as a “marriage of compulsion”.