BJP set to win all three Rajya Sabha seats in West Bengal as Trinamool may stay out of race amid internal rebellion

In West Bengal, the BJP is set to secure victory in all three Rajya Sabha seats as Trinamool Congress may not be in the race due to internal rebellion

In Delhi’s political circles, as much discussion is taking place over the by-elections for three Rajya Sabha seats in West Bengal, excitement is equally mounting in Bengal. According to the current assembly’s numbers, the BJP seems to be in a strong position for all three seats. Conversely, the Trinamool Congress, struggling with internal conflicts, appears to be facing a tough contest. The Election Commission has announced the by-election date for these three Rajya Sabha seats as the 24th of July. These seats became vacant following the resignations of former Trinamool MPs Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, Sushmita Dev, and Prakash Chik Baraik. Among them, insider reports suggest that Sukhendu Sekhar Roy might once again be nominated to the Rajya Sabha as a BJP member from Bengal.

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The three leaders recently resigned from both their positions in the Rajya Sabha and the Trinamool Congress. They had raised questions about the party’s leadership after the Trinamool’s defeat in the legislative assembly elections. Sukhendu Shekhar Ray’s and Prakash Chik Baraik’s terms were set to last until September 2029, while Sushmita Dev’s term was set to last until April 2030. Currently, the Trinamool Congress has only 9 members in the Rajya Sabha. In the 294-member West Bengal Legislative Assembly, the BJP holds 208 seats. In this scenario, if the party fields 3 candidates and all its legislators vote as instructed, each candidate is expected to receive approximately 69-70 votes, which is considered sufficient for victory.

According to the rules of the Rajya Sabha by-election, winning a seat requires a candidate to secure around 70 first-preference votes. Based on its current strength, the BJP can achieve this number without needing support from other parties. On the other hand, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) faces a major challenge due to internal conflicts. While technically the number of legislators elected on a TMC ticket is still approximately 80, the party is now divided between Mamata Banerjee’s faction and the rebel group led by leader of the opposition Ritabrata Banerjee.

If the TMC had been united, it might have competed for at least one Rajya Sabha seat. However, given the current circumstances, the likelihood of reconciliation between the two factions is quite low. This situation is viewed not only as a numbers game but also as a significant indication of an internal leadership struggle within the TMC. Both factions have filed claims with the Election Commission over the party’s name, election symbol, and organisational control. Mamata Banerjee’s faction has downplayed the loss in the Rajya Sabha, stating that these seats were vacated by leaders who left the party during times of crisis.

A senior leader from the Mamata faction mentioned that these seats originally belonged to the Trinamool Congress and were won based on the party’s numbers in the last assembly election. Some leaders have left the party following the election results. The people of West Bengal are observing who stands by the party during tough times and who departs. On the other hand, the rebel faction claims that the resignations of MPs, MLAs, and leaders reflect a lack of confidence in the leadership of Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee. A leader from the rebel camp noted that these resignations are not isolated incidents but rather a significant political statement for the party. Internal warnings have been repeatedly ignored, and their impact was evident in the assembly elections. The real issue is not the Rajya Sabha seats but why so many representatives have lost faith in the current leadership.

The dissident faction within the Trinamool Congress (TMC) showcased its strength for the first time when 58 out of 80 TMC legislators supported making Ritabrata Banerjee the leader of the opposition. This group now claims to have the support of approximately 65 legislators and is presenting itself as the true Trinamool Congress. Meanwhile, the BJP has observed that the by-elections reflect the state’s shifting political dynamics. A senior BJP leader commented, “The current assembly numbers have almost assured the outcome of the Rajya Sabha by-elections. While the Trinamool Congress is embroiled in internal conflicts, the BJP is focusing on organisation and governance. An increase in our numbers in the Rajya Sabha would reflect the people’s sentiment in West Bengal.”