Former IAF chief Arup Raha warns of two-front terror threat, stresses vigilance, indigenous air power

Former Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha has issued a series of wide-ranging warnings and strategic assessments on India’s evolving security landscape, cautioning against the rising possibility of a two-front terror threat, urging unwavering commitment to indigenous fighter development, and offering a calibrated view on the recent ideological shifts in Bangladesh.

In an exclusive interaction with UNI, Raha, former chief of defence staff, said India must brace for an increasing probability of coordinated or near-simultaneous terror challenges emerging from both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

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“A terror attack from two fronts is a probability which is increasing and we have to guard against it,” he warned. Describing India as “an oasis in a desert of instability”, Raha noted that the country’s stronger economy and stable political system stand in sharp contrast to the turbulence engulfing much of the region.
He said Pakistan-backed terror groups remain a persistent threat and cautioned that Bangladesh, too, is witnessing worrying signs of ideological drift after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government. Raha suggested that Bangladesh’s recent tilt towards fundamentalism is linked to political upheaval, yet he expressed confidence that the trend would be temporary.

“The people of Bangladesh are by nature secular and peace-loving. Consequently, this trajectory towards fundamentalism will be short-lived,” he asserted.
Still, he warned that Pakistan is “fishing in troubled waters” by attempting to build intelligence and military linkages with Dhaka. However, he argued that Bangladesh’s societal memory of the 1971 genocide continues to shape public sentiment, limiting the possibility of a deep Pakistan–Bangladesh nexus. Raha emphasised that longstanding cross-border cultural, economic and social ties between India and Bangladesh will endure but must be supplemented by heightened vigilance.

“We will have to be proactive in terms of intelligence gathering, in terms of targeting specific terror groups who may be propped up by Pakistan’s ISI,” he added.
Referring to the recent Red Fort blast and the recovery of explosive chemicals near Delhi, Raha said the incident pointed to a deeper conspiracy aimed at destabilising India.
“The Red Fort attack was part of a larger design…This points to a wider conspiracy,” he said, urging a firm national stance against state-sponsored terrorism and protection of critical economic assets.

Amid rising threats, Raha strongly reaffirmed India’s need for self-reliance in air power. He cautioned against any reconsideration of the indigenous combat aircraft programme following the recent Tejas LCA accident during a stunt manoeuvre at the Dubai Airshow.
“India should not, under any circumstances, give up its aim to produce an indigenously built fighter attack aircraft. This is an essential requirement,” he stressed. He said the Tejas has performed “reasonably well” despite slow production, and warned that the IAF’s fighter strength may fall to as low as 25 squadrons in the next five to seven years without rapid induction.

Highlighting the aircraft’s advanced capabilities, including an electronically arrayed radar, fly-by-wire controls, refuelling systems and upgraded avionics, Raha insisted that isolated mishaps must not derail decades of progress.

“Two accidents out of so many aircraft built and operated is a very low accident rate,” he said, noting that one previous incident stemmed from an issue related to the US-made F404 engine. He said India is already progressing toward developing the more advanced Tejas Mark 2, which he believes will be even more successful, and reiterated that sustained development and improved production timelines are essential for long-term strategic autonomy.

Across all fronts, from counterterrorism to regional geopolitics to defence modernisation, Raha underscored the need for stronger intelligence coordination, early threat detection, and robust military preparedness.

“We need good intelligence. We also need good preparedness for our security forces,” he said, adding that credible deterrence remains central to preventing escalation. Urging India to maintain independent capabilities in counterterror operations, he said: “We should not depend upon outside help in this war against terror, but proceed on our own.”
As head of the strategic think tank Research Centre for East & Northeast Regional Studies, Kolkata (SENERS-K), Raha concluded that while India must avoid unnecessary conflict, it must simultaneously be ready for all contingencies.