Markets were under pressure in the week gone by and the optimism about markets and new highs in the festive season simply disappeared looking at the Israel-Hamas stand. Markets lost on four of the five sessions and gained on just one session.
Increasingly the market is showing signs of weakness driven by weaker monsoon, stronger dollar and put/call ratio has breached 1.4 for Wednesday, says Jaykrishna Gandhi, Head – Business Development, Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services.
For the first time in the past few months we are seeing some rationality coming in amongst mid/small-caps. However, consistent inflows In mid/small-caps can protect downside in the coming months, he added.
Oil prices are increasingly getting more attention on the back of Saudi extending its 1mn bpd cut until the end of CY2023. This, if it coincides with any recovery in China, can ensure crude prices continue to move up which will be detrimental to important dependent countries like India and will further result in a stronger dollar, he said.
Immediate support lies at 19,430 with strong support at 19,230. If we break 19,600 with confidence then the uptrend should be reinforced to take us to 20K, he added.
V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said for the near term, there are mixed cues for the market. The negative factors are the surprising strength of the dollar index at 104.86, the resilient bond yields in the US (the 10-year at 4.26), and now, the Brent crude at $90. The spike in crude is a major macro concern.
In this scenario, the FIIs are likely to continue selling in the cash market. On the positive side, the sustained DII buying is imparting strength to the market. DIIs have bought stocks worth Rs 5,934 crore in the cash market during the last three trading days of September, he said.