It is not just Western sanctions on Russia that accelerated the trend to circumvent the dollar, but the strength of the currency in the past year has also posed a challenge.
Macro-economic data points, coupled with Indian rupee’s performance against the US dollar will influence domestic equity market’s trajectory during the upcoming week.
Market observers feel that global crude oil prices and third quarter (Q3) earning results would also influence the market’s movement.
“Global cues and crude oil price movement will continue to dictate the trend of the market,” SMC Investments & Advisors CMD DK Aggarwal told IANS.
“There is lot of uncertainty and volatility in the global markets. The domestic market is likely to track the global markets going ahead.”
Globally, concerns over a slowdown in international growth and the ongoing partial US government shutdown were major themes during the last week’s trade.
Apart from global cues, investors will look forward to the Q3 2018-19, earnings result season which will kick off from next week.
“Investors will closely watch the expectation on Q3 earnings, while global cues will dictate the direction of the market,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
Besides Q3 results, macro-economic data points – such as the eight core industries’ (ECIs) output, external debt, PMI manufacturing and services and monthly automobile sales figures – will be released during the week starting December 31.
According to Sahil Kapoor, Chief Market Strategist, Edelweiss Investment Research: “Next week markets are likely to face resistance at 11,000 levels which are likely to get tested in coming week. Currently the Index is caught in a range of 10,500 to 11,000. A resolution of this range will result in a larger directional move.”
“Nifty continues to trade at rich valuations despite a de-rating across the world. We are likely to see Indian multiples getting de-rated in the next few weeks.”
Additionally, the movement of Indian rupee against the US dollar and the direction of foreign fund flows will also set the course of key indices.
“Rupee can be under some pressure on mounting worries on missing fiscal deficit targets,” said Sajal Gupta, Edelweiss Securities’ Head of Forex and Rates.
“A range from 69.80 to 70.50 per USD can be expected.”
On a weekly basis, the Indian rupee gained 76 paise to 69.94 against the US dollar from its last week’s close of 70.15 per greenback.
In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 1,249.6 crore during the week under review.
On technical charts, the short-term trend of the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) Nifty50 remains positive.
“Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 10,941-10,985 points are taken out. Crucial intermediate supports are now at 10,738 points,” HDFC Securities’ Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani told IANS.
Last week, global relief rally following the resolution of a standoff between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell lifted the Indian equity markets.
Consequently, the BSE Sensex rose 334.65 points, or 0.93 per cent, to 36,076.72 points from its previous corresponding weekly close.
Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty50 edged up by 105.9 points, or 0.98 per cent, to close the week at 10,859.90.