India’s shrimp exports seen crossing Rs 50,000 crore this fiscal despite US tariff headwinds

India’s shrimp exports are projected to exceed Rs 50,000 crore in the current financial year, marking a 13–15% year-on-year increase after nearly three years of stagnation, as exporters successfully diversify into alternative markets to offset higher tariffs in the United States.

The growth will be largely driven by higher realisations, supported by the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar and the euro.

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Export volumes are expected to rise 6–7% this fiscal, even as shipments to the United States, the largest market for Indian shrimp, declined due to elevated tariffs.

Industry estimates show that overall export volumes expanded about 9.5% during the first three quarters of the current fiscal year.

However, shipments to the US dropped around 15% in the same period. As a result, the US share in India’s shrimp exports is likely to decline to 32–33% this fiscal from about 40% in the previous year, despite exporters frontloading shipments until August 2025 in anticipation of higher tariffs.

The industry has managed to cushion the impact by expanding shipments to other destinations, aided by free trade agreements, quicker regulatory approvals and improved market access to regions such as Russia and the European Union. India’s superior product quality and large processing capacities have also helped exporters penetrate new markets.

Looking ahead to the next financial year, export volumes are projected to grow at a moderate 3–5%, supported by improved aquaculture production. Farmers are expected to increase output in anticipation of stronger demand, particularly from the US, where tariffs are likely to be reduced to around 15%, aligning them with those faced by competing exporting nations.

Operating margins for shrimp exporters are expected to remain stable at 7.0–7.5% in both the current and next fiscal years, as any benefits from tariff reductions are likely to be passed on to customers.

An analysis of 63 rated shrimp exporters, representing roughly 55% of the industry’s revenue, indicates that the sector’s credit profiles will remain stable. With limited capacity expansion plans and healthy cash generation, long-term debt additions are expected to remain low.

While working capital requirements may witness temporary fluctuations due to entry into new markets and customers, overall leverage levels are likely to stay comfortable due to minimal capital expenditure and controlled borrowing.