Bengal’s BJP Surge Reshapes India-Bangladesh Equation

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s breakthrough in West Bengal has altered more than the domestic political map of India. It has also changed the strategic calculus along India’s eastern frontier, particularly in relation to Bangladesh, a country whose post-2024 political transition has increasingly tested New Delhi’s patience.

For several years, the politics of river water sharing between India and Bangladesh had been constrained not merely by diplomacy but by the realities of federal politics within India itself. Any agreement on the Teesta River, in particular, required the concurrence of the government in West Bengal, whose leadership under Mamata Banerjee consistently resisted arrangements it believed would hurt northern North Bengal’s irrigation and agricultural interests.

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Top officials warn that the incoming BJP government, too, may be reluctant to do a deal on Teesta on the same grounds. North Bengal has now turned into a Saffron bastion, which has elected BJP MLAs in large numbers for the second time running. And the Teesta waters are important for the primarily agricultural region’s economy.

“Bangladesh’s rhetoric and choice of timing to talk to China on a Teesta-based storage project very near India’s border, as well as the assertion made earlier this week that it cannot wait for India’s response on Teesta water sharing, will certainly not help,” pointed out Pinak R Chakravarty, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh.

The statement by Bangladesh’s foreign minister, Khalilur Rahman, on roping in China for a sensitive project right next door to India’s Siliguri corridor, which links mainland India with the northeast, comes on top of news that Bangladesh has earlier this year signed a deal with China to build military drones locally. Bangladesh Navy already operates Chinese submarines, naval vessels, radars and aircraft. It is also believed to be finalising a mega deal to buy a score of Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets.

Analysts believe these drones will be deployed on the Indian border and could be used to gather military intelligence. “Pakistan’s ISI has bolstered its cell in Bangladesh, and one cannot rule out intelligence cooperation between Bangladesh, China, Pakistan and even Turkiye, which too has bolstered its presence in Dhaka,” pointed out Shantanu Mukharji, former National Security Advisor to Mauritius and a South Asia expert.

However, the bad blood between the two neighbours during the Mohammad Yunus-led interim government’s 18-month stint, when orchestrated protests tauntingly chanted “Dhaka na Delhi” (Dhaka or Delhi) has subsided, despite the many pin-pricks which remain. And a “double engine” BJP government at the centre and state is expected to help smooth the process of bringing the two neighbours closer.

India was the first country to welcome Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister, Tarique Rahman and expects the new BNP government to take a number of steps which would help both nations resume trade ties and pending connectivity projects.

Among the first things Dhaka has on its wish-list for Delhi is that India renews the Ganges water treaty, which shares water coming up to the Farakka headwaters between the Hooghly and Padma on a 50: 50 basis or on even better terms. The 30-year treaty signed in 1996 lapses this December.

Preliminary talks and sharing of hydraulic data have already taken place. However, with just months left for the treaty to be renewed, top officials believe the deal is likely to be just extended for the time being and finalised only in the coming year.

“India will, of course, work on the treaty with Bangladesh, but the flow of water from Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Ganges, is coming down, and guarantees on amounts that can be shared will pose a problem,” admitted Uttam Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies & Analysis.

Top officials in the Ministry of External Affairs indicate that India, which has relaxed visa norms for Bangladesh, can and will make it even easier for travellers from the eastern neighbour to come over to shop at New Market or to have medical treatment or study here. However, persistent overstays, illegal migration and fears of movement by militant groups will mean that the process will be gradual and not allowed to become a torrent.

In fact, the sharp rise in rhetoric on both sides of the border on illegal migration could well bedevil relations more than water treaties or even the earlier rhetoric from Mohammad Yunus on the Northeast being dependent on Bangladesh for access to the Ocean.

However, as officials point out, the presence of seasoned Bangladesh experts such as Swapan Dasgupta within the ranks of BJP’s Bengal leadership and the appointment of a Kolkata-based businessman-turned-politician Dinesh Trivedi as India’s new envoy to Dhaka are expected to bring forth a far more balanced and nuanced approach to the relationship between Delhi-Kolkata-Dhaka and possibly usher in better relations between the two neighbours, despite all the “noise emanating from both sides of the Benapol border”.