Vote Vibe survey reveals strong anti-incumbency sentiment against Pinarayi Vijayan; Tharoor tops UDF’s CM preference

A pre-2026 Assembly election survey conducted by Vote Vibe, a private research organisation, reveals a strong wave of anti-incumbency in Kerala against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).

According to the survey, 47.9 percent of respondents expressed strong anti-incumbency sentiments against Chief Minister Vijayan. The sentiment increased with age, rising from 37 percent among those aged 18 to 24 to 45 percent among those above 55.

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A significant finding of the survey is the emergence of Shashi Tharoor, the Congress MP from Thiruvananthapuram, as the top choice for the UDF’s chief ministerial candidate, with 28.3 percent of respondents backing him. Tharoor’s party rivals for the coveted post trail far behind. AICC general secretary (in charge of organisation) K C Venugopal is pegged at a poor 4.2 percent, while others, V D Satheeshan and Sunny Joseph, have popularity ratings of 15 percent and 2 percent, respectively. Other contenders, such as Ramesh Chennithala and K Murleedharan, were backed by 8.2 percent and 6 percent of respondents.

On the LDF side, former Health Minister KK Shailaja topped the list with 24.2 percent support, while incumbent CM Pinarayi Vijayan trailed behind with 17.5 percent.

In terms of political trust, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led the field, with 38.9 per cent of respondents backing its development agenda, while the LDF followed with 27.8 per cent. The survey findings indicate that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also gaining traction as a potential third front, registering 23.1 per cent support.

According to the survey, as many as 62 percent of the voters surveyed want to replace their current MLA, as against only 23 percent wishing to maintain the status quo in the state, aligning strongly with the anti-incumbency sentiment.