As 2026 Nears, BJP Balances Governance and Ground Realities in Assam Election Push

With the 2026 Assam Assembly elections on the horizon, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has kicked off early preparations, drawing up an elaborate seven-phase strategy aimed at retaining power in the state it considers the gateway to the Northeast.

According to party insiders, three internal surveys have already been conducted across Assam’s 126 assembly constituencies.

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The feedback suggested anti-incumbency in a few pockets and dissatisfaction with some sitting MLAs.

As a result, the party may deny tickets to multiple incumbents, including at least one cabinet minister in the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led government.

In a significant leadership change, the BJP last year appointed Dilip Saikia — a Member of Parliament and a staunch RSS loyalist — as the state party president, replacing Bhabesh Kalita.

Since assuming charge, Saikia has initiated several organisational reforms, focusing on greater coordination among the rank and file and trying to present a more accommodative image to stem internal friction and growing factionalism.

The BJP made its first significant breakthrough in Assam in the 2016 Assembly elections, when it unseated the 15-year-old Congress regime under Tarun Gogoi.

The party, in alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), won 60 seats on its own and together secured 86 seats out of 126. Its vote share stood at 29.5 per cent, marking the beginning of the saffron surge in the Northeast.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP improved both its seat tally and vote share. It secured 60 seats again but with a higher vote share of 33.2 per cent.

With allies AGP (9 seats) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL, 6 seats), the NDA alliance comfortably crossed the majority mark.

This victory came despite the anti-CAA protests and the COVID-19 crisis.

Himanta Biswa Sarma was then elevated to the Chief Minister’s post, replacing Sarbananda Sonowal, who later became a Union Minister.

In the BJP’s second term, the Sarma-led government began on a high note, pushing a development-centric agenda.

Major initiatives included a strong crackdown on drug trafficking, eviction drives to reclaim government land — often targeting alleged illegal settlers — and the implementation of the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, which led to mass arrests mostly among the state’s Muslim population.

On the economic front, Assam gained national attention when Sarma announced the country’s first semiconductor manufacturing plant would come up in Jagiroad, aiming to position Assam as a technological and industrial hub for Southeast Asia.

Welfare delivery was expanded significantly — the Orunodoi scheme, in particular, saw its coverage grow, with eligible women beneficiaries receiving Rs 1,250 a month directly in their bank accounts.

However, as the election draws closer, political observers note a perceptible shift in the tone of the party.

Development has taken a backseat to polarising themes, particularly the issue of illegal migration  — a decades-old political flashpoint in Assam coming to the fore.

The recent communal flare-up in Dhubri district, where beef was allegedly thrown near a Hindu temple, escalated tensions.

Critics argue this marks a tactical return to identity politics — a tried and tested BJP strategy in previous elections.

Whether this shift back to the familiar plank of religion and illegal migration will secure the BJP another term — especially in constituencies where welfare and economic performance matter more — remains the million-dollar question as Assam braces for a politically charged year ahead.