Will the Ukraine war end?

President Trump’s administration recently leaked a 28-point peace plan that has been dominating headlines across the globe. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his initial address to the nation on the plan, said that Ukraine faces an impossible choice. It could either keep its national dignity and keep fighting or risk losing a major partner. The war is currently on a slow grind with missiles and drones dominating the battlefield. After discussions with his allies and advisors, Zelenskyy mentioned a broad acceptance of the plan. Discussions between the US and Ukraine on key aspects are currently on. The ground reality is that Russia is making slow gains while destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure steadily, especially as winter is round the bend.

Western sanctions, including on its oil exports have not had the desired results on the battlefield. On the contrary, Ukraine is finding it difficult to replace its frontline troops as those eligible are fleeing to Europe. Europe, which claims to stand by Ukraine, is unable to meet Kyiv’s demands for weapons and ammunition as it has limited manufacturing capacity. The US also cannot produce at the rate at which Ukraine is expending them. The threat of the US withdrawing support from Ukraine, unless it signed the agreement, compelled Kyiv and its European allies to have a rethink. Broadly the peace plan revolves around Ukraine sacrificing land, which Zelenskyy had thus far refused, freezing frontlines in certain areas, capping Ukraine’s military power, reconstruction of Ukraine partially by using Russian assets blocked in the West, sharing of power resources, security guarantees while discarding membership of NATO and reintegration of Russia in the global financial and economic architecture, alongside lifting of sanctions.

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Ukraine would be permitted to join the EU, but never NATO, and would be forced to hold fresh elections. This implies that Zelenskyy would no longer remain President as his popularity is at an ebb due to corruption charges. In other words, Russia would dominate Ukraine. Initially rejected by Europe and Ukraine, it does appear that they are accepting the peace plan after reducing the proposals to 19, removing some contentious subjects including Ukraine not joining NATO, which may not be acceptable to Russia. Questions being raised are whether this plan will work in the long term and what would be the global impact of the peace deal being accepted. Finally, will it benefit India? Moscow has yet to agree to the terms and conditions, though inputs mention that most of the points in the initial plan were sourced from Vladimir Putin’s terms for peace, though disagreed by the US. A Washington announcement mentioned that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, would visit Moscow to meet Putin, while Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll would visit Kyiv and obtain approval from Zelenskyy.

A leaked recording doing the rounds reveals Witkoff briefing a Russian official on how to sell the Ukraine deal. A lingering thought is that if Moscow is being forced to fund partial reconstruction of Ukraine as it was resp onsible for the devastation, should Israel also be compelled to finance reconstruction of Gaza? While circumstances may be different, the fact is that destruction at the scale done by Israel is questionable. In 1994, the US, Russia and UK inked the Budapest memorandum which guaranteed Ukraine security in the event of it giving up erstwhile the USSR’s nuclear weapons based on its soil. The agreement, a political one, assured Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and borders but stopped short of being a defence treaty. It was violated by Russia in 2014, when it took over Crimea and again in 2022 when it launched its current offensive.

In 2014, the world was silent, while it supported Ukraine with military hardware this time. It is not known if the offer of security would be similar to the US-Japan, US-South Korea or US-Philippines guarantees. The peace agreement mentions that Ukraine would pay for US guarantees. Whether US troops would be stationed in Ukraine is also unknown. Will it prevent Russia from violating it on some pretext and will the US be willing to get involved sometime in the future are matters of conjecture. Similarly, will Europe be willing to risk its troops, thereby enlarging the conflict is another question. Will Russia accep t Europ ean peacekeepers or demand they come from nations closely aligned to it remains to be seen? While the US and Europe remained embroiled in Ukraine, China has begun flexing its military muscle in the South China Sea.

It is inching forward against Taiwan. Japan sounded the warning bell with its PM Sanae Takaichi mentioning in the Diet that any Chinese assault on Taiwan could constitute a ‘survival-threatening situation for Japan.’ The Russia-China-Iran-North Korea alliance has been growing under the tutelage of China, which can be a threat to western domination. In the China-Russia relationship, China is the dominating partner as it continues funding the conflict by procuring cheap Russian oil, which the US fears to stop, as China possesses the power to hit back by curbing exports of rare earth minerals and stalling procurement of American soybeans. The US needs to re-shift focus on China, rather than giving it a wide berth. For this, Europe needs to be at peace. By drawing Russia back into Western-led financial institutions and re-converting the G7 into the G8, Washington hopes to move Moscow away from China. Lifting of sanctions on sale of Russian oil, a key demand by Putin, could make the Russian economy bounce back and Moscow tilt towards the West.

To enable the US to concentrate on China, Ukraine must be partially sacrificed on the altar. For India, which continues to maintain close ties with Moscow, inking armament deals and procuring Russian oil, the peace deal followed by lifting of sanctions on Russia would be beneficial. Putin would be in New Delhi in the coming days where several agreements, including on defence, are expected to be inked. The Russian views on the peace deal are also likely to be shared. How much will be made public is unknown. The ultimate incentive for Trump is to seal his Nobel award. Presently, this is just the beginning of the process. How it will proceed is anybody’s guess. A positive indicator would be that after initial acceptance of the plan a ceasefire would be announced.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)