Troubled Times

The 2020s are proving to be the most troubled decade in recent history, with conflicts breaking out at the drop of a hat ~ not in far corners of the world, but in our immediate neighbourhood. Sadly, the genesis of most conflicts is great power rivalry ~ a desire for supremacy. The US and Russia pick on weaker countries, to show that they are still top dogs, and the ‘new kid on the block’ China, is testing waters by browbeating neighbours. In addition to perpetually strife-torn Africa, the present decade started with China occupying our territory in Ladakh, followed by a Russian attack on Ukraine, Israel flattened the Gaza strip, and killed or expelled most of its inhabitants, and thereafter, for good measure, attacked Iran also.

Last month, we had a limited war with Pakistan. While the India-China conflict has petered out, with India accepting the status quo, the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its forty-first month, with the entire Western bloc supporting Ukraine with arms and money, stopping just short of sending soldiers. Israeli misadventures in Gaza and Iran are a totally different story. After Israeli retribution, against Palestinians exceeded all acceptable limits, Israel’s European allies distanced themselves from the carnage, but not the US, which wants the Gaza strip cleared of Palestinians ~ for US corporates to monetise. Western powers are actively supporting the Israeli invasion of Iran; the US started nuclear talks with Iran, lulling it into complacency ~ while Israel prepared to attack.

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The statement of US officials claiming that they prevailed upon Israel not to target Iranian President Khamenei, proves this assumption. Later on, USA entered the fray by bombing Iran; Britain and France moved their military assets to the Middle-East ~ probably, to deliver the coup de-grace. A US-imposed ceasefire holds, but Iran and Israel still breathe fire. Myriad concurrent wars have destabilised the entire world economy ~ not only those of the combatants. The beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war saw most countries go into re – ce ssion; food-grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia are still disrupted, leading to food shortages in many countries, with the Horn of Africa facing famine. In this fraught scenario, European countries have hiked their defence budget, by cutting down on welfare expenses ~ greatly affecting the old, the poor, and the needy.

Before Trump starts new wars round the world, he should heed what the 34th President, Dwight D Eisenhower, a decorated general of WW2, and a true statesman, had said: “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed” (“The Chance for Peace” 16/4/53). The tariff war unleashed by President Trump has compounded the global economic downslide; supply chains have been disrupted, and merchandise prices have spiked everywhere.

All countries are suffering. According to classical economic theory, free trade makes nations richer because nations then produce goods and services that they can at lowest cost, which they exchange with other nations who also produce goods they are best at. In this process, everyone benefits; the global prosperity of the last fifty years owes much to free trade. However, if circumstances do not change, free trade may never be restored. Lastly, the supreme challenge of the Anthropocene Epoch, climate change, seems imminent:

* Temperatures are rising worldwide, because increasing greenhouse gas emissions are trapping more heat in the atmosphere. According to Scientific American, July 2023 was the hottest month in the last 1,20,000 years, with heatwaves in Europe, North America, North Africa, China and Japan.

* Recognising that globally droughts are becoming longer and more extreme, since 2023 the UN has marked 17 June as ‘Desertification and Drought Day.’

* Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean around the North Pole is melting faster with the warmer temperatures.

* Glaciers are melting at a faster rate.

According to a report from International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan Mountain ranges melted 65 per cent faster between 2010-2019 than in the previous decade. The Ministry of Earth Sciences found that mean retreat rate of Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers was 14.9-15.1 meters per year, 12.7- 13.2 meters per year in Indus, 15.5-14.4 meters per year in Gan ga, and 20.2-19.7 meters per year in Brahmaputra river basins. The European Alps experienced a record amount of ice mass lost (State of the Climate in Europe, 2022). * Permafrost is melting, releasing methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

* Sea levels are rising at double the pace of 1993-2002, threatening coastal communities and estuarine ecosystems. India is deeply affected by the wars raging in Ukraine and Middle-East. India had excellent trade and cultural ties with both Russia and Ukraine; a defence relationship with Israel, heavy investments in Chabahar port, and the International North South Transport Corridor. With the ever-present Chinese mischief-mongers, and a low-intensity war waged by Pakistan, Indians have to be perpetually vigilant, and incur a huge expenditure on defence. Now, with Bangladesh firmly in the Pakistan-China camp, the threat has compounded. India also faces economic headwinds.

The US is India’s largest trading partner; Trump’s 26 per cent tariff on Indian goods, and failure of trade talks, has upended the calculations of Indian manufacturers and exporters. India exported goods worth US$ 87.4 billion to the US in 2024, which is not likely to be repeated in 2025. Moreover, Trump’s tariff offensive on most countries, has distorted world trade, to India’s disadvantage. While Trump, the most disruptive force on earth, is beyond anyone’s control, climate change for India can be ameliorated with proper management. The problem is humongous; in the last five years, elevated temperatures and heat waves, as also an extended monsoon season and widespread floods, were noticed throughout the country; Hima – layan glaciers are in retreat, we had a record number of wildfires and landslides in the pristine environs of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, as also mudslides in picturesque Kerala.

These adverse climatic events resulted in the loss of nu – merous lives and destruction of precious infrastructure. However, insulation from the Asian landmass, by oceans in the south and the Himalayas in the north, protects us ~ though not totally ~ from environmental depredations elsewhere. An honest effort to limit pollution, and overexploitation, of natural resources ~ the major causes of climate change ~ could yield immediate results. A short-sighted vision of development, through quick economic progress, by increasing manufacturing activity and tourism, has ruined the environment, particularly of hilly Hima chal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Highways, railways and dams, are being built in the hills, which have triggered landslides and damaged the fragile hill environment. Most of the residents, waiting for long-delayed prosperity are unconcerned ~ even runaway forest fires, and landslides, cannot quench their enthusiasm for ‘development.’

Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and the NorthEast, are under grave environmental threat by this vision of ‘development,’ which sees nothing wrong in introducing alien commercial plant species in their virgin jungles, and opening up the almost uninhabited Nicobar Islands for commercial exploitation. The recently tabled 135th Report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science and Technology, Environment Forest and Climate Change, took serious note of environmental destruction of the Himalayan ecosystem, but on a practical level, environmental concerns are always put on the backburner by the Government ~ by creating a sham progress vs. environment debate, and only Courts seem to be concerned about environmental issues. The current, unstated Government policy is of not discouraging environmental transgressions, so much so that if an environmental rule or law stands in the way of Ease of Doing Business, the law is often changed.

Examples are many: Environment (Protection) Act, 1986; Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980; Wildlife Protection Act, 1972; Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1974; Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981 and Indian Forest Act, 1927, were amended, as also the Environment Impact Notification and the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification. Aping the West, a culture of consumerism that encourages mindless exploitation of natural resources is being promoted. Needless to say, we can avoid a climate catastrophe, only if we rein in our greed. We have two alternatives; like the rest of the world, make hollow promises of action to be taken, far in the future, or try and limit climate change for our sub-continent. Looking the way things are going from bad to worse, by our thoughtless actions, we seem to be living what Randy Pausch wrote: “No matter how bad things are, you can always make things worse” (The Last Lecture).

(The writer is a retired Principal Chief Commissioner of Income-Tax)