Vanessa Lloyd, chair of Canada’s security and intelligence threats to elections taskforce, mentioned recently at a press conference that India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and China can subvert their national elections through sophisticated disinformation campaigns. The number of countries listed by her suggests that Canadian elections have global significance. However the reality remains that Canada has little or no global voice or significance. No matter who sits in Ottawa, little will change.

Snap elections have been called by the new Canadian PM, Mark Carney, and are scheduled for 28 April. Lloyd added, “It’s often very difficult to establish a direct link between foreign interference activities and election results.” About India, she mentioned that it would exploit its networks of allies and proxies in Canada to ‘assert its geopolitical influence’ and meddle in democratic processes.

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This means little. It also conveys that Lloyd does not trust its citizens to vote freely based on their beliefs and on issues pertaining to Canada and its ties with the US but that they can be swayed by external sources. President Donald Trump’s demand for Canada to become America’s 51st state would dominate electioneering, another form of interference.

It was Trump’s comments which speeded up the downfall of the last PM, Justin Trudeau. While Canada has accused India and other states, it remains silent on the US, which will definitely desire a leader who is subservient to Trump. US influence in Canadian elections is a known factor. A country which believes that multiple nations, including non-entities like Pakistan and sanctioned countries like Iran and Russia can interfere in its internal processes is unfit to be termed as an educated and modern democracy.

What Ottawa fails to realize is that every democratic election, especially in a nation with large numbers of immigrants, legal and illegal, will have influence on immigrants’ home states, directly and indirectly. Official Canadian investigations had earlier accused China of interference, which Trudeau amended to include India, mainly due to his disastrous visits and because naming China did benefit him. Immigrant citizens in any country would seek a government which is favourable to their country of origin, as it benefits them and their families back home.

In a similar manner, banned Khalistan activists in Canada had attempted to sway Indian voters in Punjab, both in state assembly and Lok Sabha elections, hoping to create a pro-Khalistan government in the state. However, their efforts failed as there were very few takers for the movement in India. Trudeau supported the farmers’ agitation in India, intending to garner Sikh votes at home. His backing to Khalistan groups also could be termed as interference in India’s internal matters. India removed additional Canadian diplomats as they commented and interfered in India’s internal matters, while granting visas to Khalistan activists and fugitives.

Meanwhile Canadian politics is also displaying a bias towards those who originated from India. The Canadian Liberal Party has disqualified Chandra Arya from standing for elections on the grounds that he visited India and met PM Modi in New Delhi. Is this logical? Politicians with roots in India meet Indian government officials on their visits to the homeland. India-Canada relations have been on a downward spiral since the Trudeau government accused India of being involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan activist.

Despite intense investigation and arrests of those possibly involved, no links to India have been established, nor has any proof been provided to back the accusations. The embassies of both nations continue to be understaffed and without High Commissioners. The Biden administration had accused Russia and China of interfering in US elections. It even sanctioned Russian state media executives and restricted Kremlin-linked broadcasters. Trump, on the other hand, denied Russian interference.

If nations like the US can face interference and influence from their adversaries, Canada is but small fry. There is also the possibility that the outgoing Liberal government in Canada is exploiting the tool of foreign interference to create confusion in opposition ranks. Rumours doing the rounds in Canada mention that India interfered in the 2022 Conservative party leadership race, with the aim of helping the winner, Pierre Poilievre, a fact which he denies. The Indian government has repeatedly rejected Canadian accusations of interference. China too has rejected Ottawa’s accusations.

Canada and China are currently in a trade conflict, with China announcing additional tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products in retaliation to Canadian tariffs on its electric vehicles, steel and aluminium products. The outgoing Trudeau government was also pushing to worsen already deteriorating Indo-Canadian ties. When India went in for elections in May 2024, there were multiple instances of nations commenting on Indian matters, whether it be law and order, arrest of political criminals or religious freedom or its pattern of democracy.

On Canada, there have been no comments in Indian media or by the government. Indo-Canada relations are presently at an ebb and New Delhi is in no hurry for their revival. Further, with Trudeau out of the picture, India is comfortable with anyone else assuming the mantle, whether it be Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre. The only interest which India has in Canada is that it should stop supporting the Khalistan movement. The situation could get complicated if Jagmeet Singh’s National Democratic Party (NDP) becomes the king maker once again in the next government.

In any case, most NDP members are banned from entering India. Canada is the host for the G7 summit this year, which is scheduled in June. India, with its rising economy and global power, has been a permanent invitee for the past few years. Canada has little choice but to invite India. Not doing so would impact its global standing, rather than that of Delhi. By then the new government should have assumed office.

With the Trump administration having assumed office, the Khalistan movement has slowed down its activities in both Canada and the US. The new FBI director, Kash Patel, is said to have warned Jagmeet Singh that it he steps foot on US soil he would be deported to India over Khalistan. This has stalled the movement. Hence, no matter who assumes the mantle in Ottawa, India could push its agenda through Washington. For this it does not need to interfere in Canadian elections.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)