On 22 April, the pristine calm of Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam was ruptured by violence of the most brutal kind. In what is now being called the deadliest civilian-targeted terrorist attack in India since 2008, twenty-six tourists, including a child and a Nepalese national, were murdered in cold blood by militants claiming allegiance to The Resistance Front (TRF), a known proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba of Pakistan. This was not just an act of horrendous terror. For India, it was a catastrophic intelligence failure, a security breach of the highest order, and a national tragedy with profound strategic consequences.

India, a nuclear-armed state with one of the world’s largest standing militaries and a formidable intelligence network, failed to foresee an attack in one of the most heavily patrolled and sensitive regions of the country. This is India’s “zero-day” event ~ a term borrowed from cybersecurity, referring to a previously unknown vulnerability exploited by attackers before a patch can be issued. Kashmir’s picturesque façade had, perhaps, lulled policymakers into a misplaced sense of normalcy. But beneath it, as this attack showed, lay dormant terror networks waiting for their opportunity. The question India must now ask ~ calmly, seriously, and strategically ~ is this: how can India predict and prevent the next zero-day attack?

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The answer lies not just in more boots on the ground, but in more intelligence, more integration, and more technology. India must now make a decisive shift toward AI-enhanced national security ~ learning from global counterparts like Israel and the United States, who have integrated artificial intelligence deeply into their counterterrorism frameworks. India’s counterterrorism strategy remains a mix of centralized intelligence agencies ~ RAW, IB, NIA ~ and military deployment in volatile areas like Jammu and Kashmir. But this system is often reactive, bureaucratic, and siloed. It is good at response but poor at prediction.

It can investigate what happened, but it struggles to see what is about to happen. It responds to threats but does not proactively hunt for threats and stop them before they strike. Moreover, the focus in Kashmir over the past few years has tilted toward infrastructure development and tourism promotion. While such soft power strategies are essential, they must be accompanied by upgraded surveillance and threat anticipation mechanisms, especially in remote, high-value areas. The Baisaran Valley, accessible only by foot or horseback and surrounded by thick forest, became an unguarded zone ~ a perfect target for asymmetric warfare.

The terrorists understood this. India didn’t. Israel, a country with a fraction of India’s resources but a far more existential security environment, offers one model. Its intelligence agency, Unit 8200, leverages AI to analyze phone metadata, satellite imagery, and online communication to detect behavioral anomalies. These are cross-referenced with historical patterns of insurgent activity, allowing the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to preempt attacks with precision. Its smart border systems, powered by thermal imaging and computer vision, are capable of detecting and classifying movement ~ human, animal, or vehicular ~ within seconds. In high-risk zones, these tools are not experimental; they are operational doctrine.

The United States, particularly through its Department of Defense’s Project Maven, uses AI to analyze drone footage in real time. This allows for the identification of vehicles, weapons, and human activity in conflict zones without delay. Combined with generative AI’s natural language processing (NLP) systems that monitor opensour ce intelligence ~ forums, encrypted platforms, and deep web chatter ~ U.S. counterterrorism forces can often intercept plots before they become operations.

Additionally, agencies like the National Security Agency (NSA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employ predictive policing tools that flag domestic and foreign threats based on behavioral analytics and travel history ~ tools that have become controversial but effective in high-stakes national security scenarios. How can AI help India? India, with its vast pool of engineers, data scientists, and AI startups ~ not to mention military R&D through DRDO ~ has the capacity to build and deploy such systems. What’s missing is strategic urgency and political coordination. Here are five immediate applications of AI for counterterrorism India must adopt:

* Predictive Modeling: AI can detect anomalies in movement patterns, communication behaviour, and online activity. Unusual visits to forests, encrypted group chats discussing sensitive areas, or route mapping behavior can all trigger early warnings.

* Drone ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance): Autonomous drones equipped with computer vision can patrol valleys like Baisaran, instantly alerting command centers to suspect gatherings, gunfire, or unauthorized movement.

* Facial Recognition and Biometric Verification: AI can crosscheck surveillance camera footage from bus stations, hotels, and shrines against national watch-lists.

* Social Media and Dark Web Monitoring: Natural Language Processing (NLP)-powered systems should scan for coded language, propaganda, or radicalization narratives in local languages, Kashmiri, Urdu, Punjabi, etc., across all platforms and apps.

* Smart Border Defense: Thermal and radar-based AI systems must be deployed in terrain accessible infiltration zones, with alerts routed through a centralized AI-powered military operations center. Adopting AI isn’t just about buying new software or hardware. It requires institutional transformation. India should establish a National AI Command Centre ~ a nodal agency integrating data from RAW, IB, state police, satellite feeds, and cyber intelligence.

This agency must operate with both speed and accountability, combining AI with human judgment. Equally important, nonetheless, is the question of civil liberties. AI systems can be misused or biased. There must be legal safeguards, ethical frameworks, and parliamentary oversight, particularly when surveillance extends into civilian domains. The tragedy in Baisaran Valley must not be reduced to a news cycle. It should be treated as a wake-up call ~ a signal that India’s security model must evolve from manpower-intensive response to technology-led preemption.

In the 21st century, terrorism wars are won not just by armies, but by algorithms. The next terrorist attack is being planned in silence. India’s response must begin in urgency. Diplomatic measures are necessary ~ but not sufficient. India’s diplomatic retaliation post-Pahalgam ~ expulsions, visa cancellations, Indus Water Treaty suspensions ~ sends a strong geopolitical signal. However, it does little to stop the next attack. The Pahalgam atta ck was not only a tragedy ~ it was a test. A test of India’s ability to use modern AI technology to foresee and forestall, to nip evil in the bud. India failed to foresee this zero-day event. But India must not fail again.

A new doctrine must emerge ~ one that places AI at the centre of national security, not just as a tool, but as a philosophy. From space-based surveillance to drone ISR, from behavioral analytics to cyber intelligence, AI can help India do what it could not do in Pahalgam: see it coming. The next move belongs to India.

(The writer is a national security analyst focusing on AI, geopolitics, and strategic affairs and hosts the podcast, America Unbound. He is the author of India In A New Key: Nehru To Modi)