What next for Ajit Pawar’s NCP, focus now on his 40 MLAs

The sudden death of influential Maharashtra leader Ajit Pawar has created a political vacuum in the state, while also throwing the future of his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction and its 40 MLAs into uncertainty.

These are difficult times for both Ajit Pawar’s NCP and his uncle Sharad Pawar’s rival faction the NCP (SP). Though Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis needs to ensure that these MLAs do not drift away from the NDA’s Mahayuti alliance, the fact is, even if they do, the government will not be in any immediate danger. Such a situation might place Deputy CM Eknath Shinde and his faction of Shiv Sena in a more commanding position.

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After the tragic plane crash on Wednesday, Ajit Pawar’s faction has around 40 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly. After splitting from Sharad Pawar, the Election Commission in 2024 recognised Ajit Pawar’s group as the official NCP, citing its majority among the original 53 MLAs.

However, much has changed since then, particularly with reports that Ajit and Sharad Pawar were actively exploring coming together for good, even though their pre-poll tactical alliance failed to blunt the BJP in key urban centres in recent Municipal Corporation elections. The elections left Ajit Pawar politically vulnerable within the Mahayuti while Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) performed even worse, registering a vote share of just around nine per cent.

Both factions had joined hands ahead of the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal elections, releasing a joint manifesto and sharing platforms. Ajit Pawar appeared alongside Sharad Pawar and his daughter Supriya Sule for the first time since the 2023 split. Though the alliance failed to deliver results, it fuelled speculation of a full NCP reunion. There was buzz about post-merger arrangements, including a key role for Sule, while Sharad Pawar hinted at delaying his planned 2026 retirement to facilitate unity.

Ajit Pawar’s death, however, may have dramatically altered the equation. His faction was largely built around his personal authority, and its future leadership is now unclear. Senior leaders such as Sunil Tatkare, Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal could vie for control along with family members, Ajit’s wife and sons.

A by-election will eventually be held in Ajit Pawar’s Assembly constituency, but the immediate question is whether his MLAs will stay with the BJP–Shiv Sena-led Mahayuti, return to Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), or take other political paths. With rumours of possible mergers between the two NCP factions, defections to the BJP, or even absorption into the Congress, analysts predict changes in Maharashtra’s political landscape in the days ahead.

The Mahayuti alliance currently has around 235 to 237 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly.

Led by the BJP, the single largest party with 132 seats, the Mahayuti has the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena with 57 seats and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP with 41 (now 40) seats. The government is further boosted by smaller parties and independents.