The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India is going to cause a huge setback to Pakistan, which is already grappling with economic challenges, according to experts.

The treaty survived two wars — the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars — and several military standoffs between the two neighbours, including the 1999 Kargil war, but has now been indefinitely suspended.

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Following the Pahalgam terror attack, India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan. This was among the decisions taken by the Narendra Modi government after the dastardly attack which claimed at least 26 lives.

The Indus River system starts in Tibet and flows through India and Pakistan, also touching parts of Afghanistan and China. Division of the waters of the Indus river system, which spans both countries, is governed by a 56-year-old treaty, which are regarded as one of the most successful agreements of its kind.

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was brokered by the World Bank after nine years of talks and signed by India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan to manage shared rivers.

According to the treaty, India has control over the eastern rivers Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, while Pakistan gets the waters of western rivers Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Both countries are allowed limited use of the rivers and their tributaries assigned to the other for specific purposes including irrigation and power generation.

Pakistan benefits the most from the treaty as it receives 80 per cent of the total water flow from these rivers, which is utilised for agriculture, mainly in its Punjab and Sindh provinces. The country is heavily dependent on it to avoid a full-blown water crisis. Major cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Multan draw their water directly from these rivers, vital for irrigation, farming and drinking.

The treaty’s suspension would definitely affect Pakistan’s water requirements and agicultural sector. The Indus River network– comprising the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers — serves as Pakistan’s principal water resource, supporting it major population.

Pakistan’s 23 per cent national income comes from agriculture. So, an interruption would significatly impact the country’s agricultural sector, a crucial component of its economy.

For Pakistan, the Indus river system is not just vital—it is existential. India cannot physically stop the flow of water from the western rivers, it has ways to reduce it. By using dams and smaller infrastructure built along these rivers, India aims to cripple Pakistan’s water supply. This move is likely to impact both irrigation and drinking water, at least to some extent.

Pakistan already faces water management issues such as ground water depletion, salisation of agri lands and limited water storage capacity — it is just 10 per cent of Pakistan’s annual water share under the treaty.

India currently generates around 3,000 MW of hydroelectricity from the western rivers, but the Indus basin is said to have a potential of nearly 19,000 MW.