Double whammy—Monsoon 2026 likely to be below normal, El Niño to strengthen

Amid the ongoing geopolitical chaos, rising crude prices and inflation, there seems to be another grim scenario building up on the horizon—the possibility of a below-normal monsoon, the lifeline of India.

While official forecaster IMD is yet to take a position on the critical June-September season that drives the agrarian and economic health of the country and the general wellbeing of its people, private forecaster Skymet on Tuesday warned that the upcoming monsoon season may be “below normal”, a scenario that is also negative for groundwater and reservoirs recharge and the power situation.

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According to the Skymet, monsoon is expected to be 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

The bottom line is there is zero percent chance of excess (more than 110% of LPA); 10% chance of above normal (between 105 to 110% of LPA); 20% chance of normal (96 to 104% of LPA); 40% chance of below normal (90 to 95% of LPA); and 30% chance of drought (less than 90% of LPA). Month-wise, June forecast is 101% of LPA and a 70% chance of normal rains; July 95% of LPA and a 40% chance of normal rains; August 92% of LPA and a 60% chance of below normal; and September 89% of LPA and a 70% chance of below-normal rains.

The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased. In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western parts to witness inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are expected to observe less-than-normal rains, more so during August-September. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country.

Jatin Singh of Skymet says that after a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. “Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular.”

Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole also has the capacity to drive monsoon circulation. A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño and good news here may be that it is expected to be neutral or delicately positive, which will contribute to a decent start of the monsoon. However, the chances of the monsoon getting impaired during the second half of the season also cannot be dismissed.
@⁨Mitali Gautam⁩ pls publish