Congress’ Karnataka dilemma—another unity breakfast, but what else

Three days after a breakfast meeting between Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D K Shivakumar on Tuesday, it was the turn of the Deputy Chief Minister to reciprocate. Seen as yet another attempt to ease tensions arising from internal demands for a change in leadership over Siddaramaiah’s favourite ‘naati koli saaru’, this breakfast meeting almost felt like a déjà vu— Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar breaking the bread cordially, putting up a united front before the media, and rival BJP slamming the “Congress drama”.

Siddaramaiah again claimed no differences between him and Shivakumar, that they were united and would run the government together. Shivakumar backed Siddaramaiah and termed the alleged rift between the two leaders as a media creation. “We are one voice in Congress. There is no difference in the party; it’s only a media creation,” he said. Siddaramaiah also reiterated that both of them would abide by the decision of the Congress high command, and Shivakumar would become the CM when the high command decides. However, a fresh angle was provided by state Home Minister G Parameshwara—seen as the third contender for the top post—urging Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to work toward a “peaceful settlement.”

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While Karnataka leaders await a call from the High Command, Congress’s central leadership seems to be hoping that the issue will be resolved amicably by the two leaders.

According to sources, the High Command wants to avoid a repeat of past failures in Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh, where power-sharing promises faltered. Their priority is placating both leaders without alienating their respective voter bases, which Congress leaders insist can only be done through mutual understanding. But the time is running out for Shivakumar as the period till December 8 is the only window in the immediate future when he has the chance to aim at the top post, as the Winter Session of the Assembly is beginning in Belagavi on Monday.

The truth is, Congress is in a spot in Karnataka.

When Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar assumed their current positions in 2023, it was said to be based on a mutual agreement, but if there was an option for a mid-term change of guard—this only the central functionaries and the two Karnataka leaders know.

In those terms, it is a classic Catch-22 situation for Congress.

Siddaramaiah comes from the Kuruba community and positions himself as a champion of AHINDA—minorities, backward classes, Dalits. It is not easy for Congress to ignore Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, given his political influence and role as a prominent troubleshooter and his community backing. Shivakumar enjoys support among MLAs and party workers, but Siddaramaiah, an OBC, too is valuable as someone who has enabled the Congress to widen and consolidate its acceptance among subaltern communities.

Sources say the Chief Minister has dug his heels in, knowing that replacing him with Shivakumar is not an easy choice for the party. A Vokkaliga at the top can create a rupture in the Congress’s social base in Karnataka, and that works against Shivakumar. Essentially, the question is about how to balance caste equations between Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA and Shivakumar’s Vokkaliga support and enhance Congress’ electoral prospects for the 2028 Assembly and 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Also, the Congress is mindful of the political sensitivity in making the change midway—a man like Siddaramaiah cannot be forced out without a plausible reason.