Saffron surge sweeps the east

Nothing short of a saffron wave has gripped eastern India in recent years, and it was emphatically confirmed by the sweeping victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal and the consolidation of political power in Assam, where the nationalist party secured a consecutive third-term electoral victory. While some observers had expressed optimism during the campaign period ahead of the recent elections, only a few anticipated that the BJP-led alliance would retain power in Assam with over a hundred seats in the 126- member Assembly, and that the BJP alone would cross the mark of 200 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, defeating the incumbent All India Trinamul Congress.

The counting of votes on 4 May delivered a rewarding outcome for the BJP, which independently won 82 constituencies, while its trusted allies, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), secured 10 seats each. In contrast to the performance of the National Democratic Alliance nominees, the opposition Congress and its electoral partners were restricted to only 21 seats, with the Gaurav Gogoi-led party reduced to just 19 legislators. Parliamentarian Gogoi, who had been projected as the chief ministerial face, lost the electoral battle in the Jorhat constituency to three-time BJP legislator Hitendra Nath Goswami.

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Although the ruling alliance did not officially announce its chief ministerial candidate, it was the incumbent government head who led the campaign from the front. Himanta Biswa Sarma, who shifted his political allegiance from the Congress to the BJP in 2015, continues to lead the saffron party in Assam and Northeast India in general. His aggressive campaign, coupled with anti-Miya rhetoric (a reference to Muslim settlers of Bangladeshi origin in the region), attracted a large section of residents who remain apprehensive about their religious and socio-cultural identities in their homeland. Moreover, the government delivered several schemes related to infrastructure development, welfare, and transparent employment generation.

All major exit polls had predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in Assam as thousands of electronic voting machines were kept in 35 fortified strong rooms under strict security by central forces. The projections turned into reality as results emerged from 40 counting centres across 35 district headquarters, where more than 2,345 micro-observers were present. Election authorities had also deployed 126 counting observers brought from other states for the counting exercise. The BJP recorded its highest-ever tally of legislators, surpassing even the Congress performance of 78 seats in the 2011 Assembly elections under the leadership of then Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, who was assisted at the time by current Chief Minister Sarma.

Being a former Congressman himself, Sarma has successfully weakened the party. Recently, former Assam Congress president Bhupen Bora joined the saffron camp. Parliamentarian Pradyut Bordoloi, who joined the BJP just ahead of the election, was immediately offered a ticket from the prestigious Dispur constituency. While Bordoloi and Bora emerged victorious, outgoing Leader of the Opposition in the Assam Assembly Debabrat Saikia and former Assam Congress president Ripun Bora lost their respective seats. Sarma has since submitted his resignation to Assam Governor Lakshman Prasad Acharya as head of the council of ministers, paving the way for the formation of a new government in Dispur, presumably on 12 May.

Amid the visible factors that helped Sarma place the BJP firmly on the winning side, there were also significant contributions from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the socio-cultural organisation that organised thousands of Hindu Sanmilans in Assam while celebrating its centenary year, coinciding with the Assembly elections. The Sangh had already established its presence in the region long before the BJP emerged as a major political force. RSS volunteers publicly campaigned for 100 per cent voting through personal outreach, public meetings, and social media campaigns. In effect, they encouraged and motivated Hindu voters to cast their votes without hesitation, and the exceptionally high voter turnout of 85.91 per cent directly benefited the saffron nominees. Another aspect of the Assam polls highlighted the impact of the Zubeen Garg episode.

It became evident that all candidates and parties that attempted to bring the issue of Zubeen’s unusual death in Singapore and the subsequent investigation into electoral politics failed to gain public support. Many had argued that young voters would turn against the ruling alliance, as the ‘Justice for Zubeen’ campaign had touched millions of admirers and well-wishers of the revered cultural icon. In reality, however, Assam’s electorate responded differently, something that may require deeper introspection in the future. It is worth mentioning that Zubeen’s close family members repeatedly appealed to everyone not to politicise his untimely death and the subsequent investigations for electoral gain, but some groups chose to ignore the request.

Those political actors presumed that, amid the high-voltage campaign atmosphere, Zubeen’s unexplained death near Lazarus Island in Singapore on 19 September last year and the subsequent investigations would influence a large number of voters, particularly the youth, who were disturbed by the mysterious circumstances surrounding his demise. Meanwhile, a coroner’s court in Singapore ruled that the 53-year-old singer had died due to accidental drowning, even as investigations in Assam treated the case as a suspected murder. Opposition leaders also demanded clarity and accountability from the government, questioning the integrity of the investigation carried out by a special Assam Police team, under which murder charges were filed against four individuals.

Responding to these developments, the outspoken Chief Minister remarked that the Singapore verdict had strengthened the case registered in Assam. Stressing that the Assam investigation was independent of Singapore’s inquiry, Sarma pointed out that both investigations concluded that Zubeen had consumed alcohol beyond the permissible limit. According to the Assam probe, an additional finding suggested that Zubeen had been made to consume alcohol on the previous night as part of a larger conspiracy. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi and Asom Jatiya Parishad chief Lurinjyoti Gogoi remained vocal on the Zubeen issue and pledged speedy justice for the singer if voted to power. In doing so, they overlooked repeated appeals from Zubeen’s widow, Garima Saikia Garg, who had folded her hands and requested that his name not be used for electoral gain. Remarkably, both leaders were decisively rejected by the electorate.

(THE WRITER IS A GUWAHATI-BASED SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STATESMAN.)