The data analysis of think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has highlighted that India’s merchandise exports to the US from sectors such as marine items, gold, electrical, and electronics are expected to decline by USD 5.76 billion this year due to increased American duties.

India’s competitive position in select product segments may help cushion some of the losses, it mentioned.

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The report added that the sectors which can witness modest gains include textiles made-up, apparel, ceramic products, inorganic chemicals, and pharmaceuticals.

“Using detailed trade data and tariff schedules, the analysis estimates that India could see a decline of USD 5.76 billion, or 6.41 per cent, in exports to the US in 2025,” GTRI said.

It said that several key product groups are likely to see reductions, such as the exports of fish and crustaceans may fall by 20.2 per cent; iron or steel articles by 18 per cent; diamonds, gold products by 15.3 per cent.

Further, the vehicle and parts exports by 12.1 per cent; and electrical, telecom, and electronic products may decline by 12 per cent.

Plastics, carpets, petroleum products, organic chemicals, and machinery are also expected to be negatively impacted.

Energy products, including petroleum, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals as well as copper, have been exempted from country-specific tariffs. These high-value items accounted for USD 20.4 billion or 22.7 per cent of India’s exports to the US in 2024. They will continue to face only the standard MFN (Most Favoured Nation) tariff.

The report highlighted that India’s seafood exports may be hit hard by the new tariffs. The US imported USD 2 billion worth of Indian frozen fish and shrimp last year, making up nearly a third of India’s global exports in this category.

In terms of gold jewellery and cut and polished diamonds, GTRI stated that given India’s relatively low value addition in this sector and the heavy new tariffs, exports are projected to fall by 15.3 per cent, or roughly USD 1.82 billion.

India exported USD 11.9 billion worth of gold jewellery and cut and polished diamonds to the US in 2024, with America accounting for 40 per cent of India’s global exports in this category. The sector at present has 2.1 per cent duty.

Announcing the tariffs, US President Donald Trump specifically called out India’s trade policies, stating, “India, very, very tough. Very, very tough. The prime minister just left. He’s a great friend of mine, but I said, you’re a friend of mine, but you’re not treating us right. They charge us 52 per cent.”