Exit poll findings indicate decisive win for LDF, claims MV Govindan

The exit polls released on Wednesday dashed the CPM-led LDF’s hopes of continuing in power, predicting that the UDF will come to power in Kerala. The projections have lifted the UDF camp.

While across 10 different surveys, the UDF has emerged as the clear frontrunner, with projections suggesting a comfortable majority, CPM’s Kerala secretary MV Govindan on Thursday said the underlying findings of the exit polls, specifically the absence of anti-incumbency and the popularity of the Chief Minister, indicate a definitive win for the LDF.

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Speaking to media persons here on Thursday, Govindan said that careful examination of the exit polls shows that the LDF is poised to return to power in Kerala.

“The recent exit polls have made two things clear: One, there is no anti-government sentiment in Kerala, and two, Pinarayi Vijayan is most likely to become the Chief Minister of Kerala,” MV Govindan said.

He reiterated that the LDF would win a third consecutive term, projecting a victory with over 90 seats and denying the existence of anti-incumbency.

“The survey has said that the LDF will get 60 to 69 seats. If it is 69, then two more are needed for an absolute majority. The surveyors themselves say that there may be a difference of five or eight. In fact, according to this survey, the LDF has a very good chance of coming to power. Therefore, the LDF has no worries,” Govindan said.

Govindan argued that exit polls do not accurately reflect ground reality and disagreed with predictions suggesting a UDF comeback.

Across 10 different surveys, the UDF has emerged as the clear frontrunner, with projections suggesting a comfortable majority. Seat forecasts for the front range from a low of 66–76 seats by People Insight to a high of 90–92 seats predicted by Political Laboratory. Axis My India estimates the UDF tally between 78 and 90 seats, reinforcing the possibility of a decisive comeback.

In contrast, the CPM-led LDF is projected to fall short of retaining power. Its seat estimates vary widely — from 49–62 (Axis My India) to a maximum of 62–69 (PMARQ), suggesting a potential dip.

The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain on the margins, with most exit polls predicting single-digit figures. Axis My India places the NDA between zero and three seats, while CNN-Vote Vibe and Journo Mirror estimate ranges of 0–4 and 0–5, respectively. Only People Insight offers a relatively higher projection of 10–14 seats.

On leadership preferences within the UDF, V D Satheesan leads the race for the Chief Minister’s post with 21% support in the Axis My India survey, followed by Ramesh Chennithala at 8%. K C Venugopal (3%) and Shashi Tharoor (1%) trail behind.

For the LDF, Pinarayi Vijayan remains the undisputed choice, securing 33% support, far ahead of K K Shailaja.

Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) chief Sunny Joseph on Thursday said the exit poll figures were close to the numbers calculated by the party and expressed confidence that the UDF will come to power after the Assembly poll results are declared on May 4.