Tamil Nadu exit polls give edge to DMK alliance but Vijay’s TVK may emerge kingmaker

Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) appears poised for a blockbuster debut in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election with Axis My India exit poll predicting 98-120 seats for the actor-turned-politician’s party.

According to the survey, the DMK-led alliance is predicted to win 92-110 of the 234 Assembly seats that went to polls. The BJP-AIADMK alliance was projected to win just 22-23 seats.

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With Vijay’s TVK likely securing close to 100 seats, a new power structure could emerge within the South Indian state.

Another survey conducted by Kamakhya Analytics predicted a hung house with the DMK-Congress alliance likely to win 78-95 seats, the BJP-AIADMK 68-84 seats and Vijay’s TVK 67-81 seats.

Matrize exit poll has predicted 122-132 seats for the DMK-Congress alliance and 87-100 seats for the BJP-AIADMK alliance. According to the Matrize survey, Vijay’s party is likely to secure 10-12 seats.

P-Marq also predicted a DMK-Congress return in Tamil Nadu with the alliance predicted to win 125-145 seats. NDA and TVK are projected to bag 65-85 seats and 16-26 seats, respectively.

Another survey by People’s Pulse predicted Stalin’s return to power with 125-145 seats. The NDA could win 65-80 seats and Vijay’s party 18-24.

The only survey that predicted an NDA victory was conducted by JVC. As per their exit poll, the AIADMK-BJP alliance is likely to secure a clear majority with 128-147 seats. DMK and allies are predicted to win 75-95 seats and Vijay’s TVK 8-15.

The 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election were held across all the 234 constituencies in a single phase on April 23. The counting of votes will take place on May 4.

The exit polls have a mixed history – sometimes they have predicted the outcome quite accurately, while on several occasions they have proved completely wrong.