Prediction time after Assam polls as turnout exceeds 85

With Assam completing the largely peaceful, single-phase polling on 9 April 2026 to elect 126 representatives to the State Legislative Assembly, the focus shifts to the probable outcome, as both the ruling and opposition parties are claiming the result in their favour, citing an all-time high voter turnout (85.96 per cent) in the north-eastern state. Currently, the fate of 722 candidates representing different political parties and independent contenders remains sealed in the electronic voting machines.

The outcome will surface on 4 May, the counting day set by the Election Commission of India for general elections in Assam, Kerala, the Union Territory of Puducherry, as well as by-elections in Karnataka’s Bagalkot and Davanagere South seats, Nagaland’s Koridang and Tripura’s Dharmanagar constituency. The results of Tamil Nadu’s single-phase Assembly polls held on 23 April and the two-phase West Bengal elections (23 and 29 April) will also be available on the same day. For Assam, the magic number 64 in the Legislative Assembly was retained by the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance in the 2021 elections, and it formed the government for the second time in Dispur with 75 members. This time, the ruling National Democratic Alliance has been claiming it will win more seats.

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Days earlier, while addressing election rallies in a few north Bengal localities, Assam’s incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma claimed that the saffron party-led alliance will secure decisive victories in both the bordering states. The outspoken BJP leader predicted wins in nearly 100 seats in Assam and around 200 in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly. Earlier, BJP Assam president Dilip Saikia expected a commanding majority for the NDA nominees. Terming the visibly high voter turnout as pro-incumbency in nature, the top leaders of BJP allies (Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front) also predicted over 90 seats for the ruling alliance.

On the other hand, the Indian National Congress-led opposition alliance (which was formed at the last moment) claimed it would win over 70 seats to return to power after a decade. Assam Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi, while citing the BJP’s two-term anti-incumbency, continued harassment of religious minority families and, more precisely, personal corruption charges against CM Sarma and his family, termed the unprecedented voter turnout in favour of change. The Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha targeted Sarma personally after senior Congress leader Pawan Khera made some stunning allegations against the Chief Minister’s wife on 5 April.

It is mentionable that Khera, at a formal press meet in New Delhi (and later in Guwahati too), alleged that Riniki Bhuyan Sarma was holding multiple foreign passports and undisclosed investments to the tune of millions of dollars in foreign countries (UAE and USA). Gogoi also opined that since then Sarma appeared panicked and went on making aggressive public statements. However, both Sarma and his wife denounced the allegations and challenged them in court with a forgery and conspiracy case under multiple sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita.

Facing the heat, Khera approached the Telangana High Court and even received a short period of transit anticipatory bail, but it was stayed by the Supreme Court of India. The apex court also refused to extend Khera’s transit bail and asked him to approach a competent court in Assam for relief. Meanwhile, the Gauhati High Court also denied anticipatory bail to Khera. Sarma, while asking Khera to surrender before the Assam Police, also expressed dissatisfaction with the police forces over why the Congress leader was allowed to leave Guwahati after the FIR was lodged. He stated that soon after his return to the CMO, the concerned police personnel would be made accountable for the failure. Sarma even announced that he would file a public interest litigation against the ECI to raise serious issues relating to Khera’s timing (just four days ahead of the Assam polls) and intention to defame his family.

A law graduate himself, Sarma claimed that the allegations were made at a specific time to influence poll outcomes. He believes that the ECI should issue guidelines while addressing such matters, as they may have negative impacts on electoral outcomes for the party concerned. Once a Congress loyalist before joining the saffron party in 2015, he echoed a strong view that if any political party is proved to have deliberately spread wrong information just ahead of polls to misguide the electorate, its registration should be cancelled. The opposition leaders immediately picked up his PIL comment against the ECI to criticise Sarma for allegedly undermining constitutional institutions and democratic principles with such remarks.

Debabrata Saikia, Leader of the Opposition in the Assam Assembly, condemned Sarma’s views as arbitrary and oppressive. With his arrogance of power, Sarma has degraded his constitutional position, asserted Saikia. Political observers also commented that Sarma has somehow given an opportunity to national opposition leaders to renew their backlash against the ECI in the backdrop of a recent impeachment move forwarded by over 190 parliamentarians against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

(THE WRITER IS A GUWAHATI-BASED SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STATESMAN)