Industrial credit growth seen at 9–13% in H1 2026: Ficci-IBA Survey

In the January–June period of 2026, the Indian banking sector is likely to witness 9–13 per cent industrial credit growth, according to a Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry–Indian Banks’ Association (Ficci-IBA) survey.

The survey indicates a steady and gradual expansion, likely to be supported by the ongoing revival in capital expenditure, infrastructure push, and recovery in sectoral demand.

Advertisement

Industrial credit growth for small finance banks and cooperative banks is expected to be around 7–9 per cent, reflecting relatively conservative expansion expectations.

Further, the report noted that public sector banks display stronger confidence, with expectations skewed towards higher growth bands. This optimism is anchored in improved asset quality, strengthened capital buffers, and continued traction in corporate lending, particularly amid signs of a capex revival.

For foreign banks, growth is expected to be in the 11–13 per cent range, reflecting moderate optimism shaped largely by global liquidity conditions, capital allocation priorities, and selective participation in domestic corporate credit markets.

“Segment-wise responses indicate clear variation in expectations across bank categories. Small finance banks and cooperative banks are largely clustered in the 7–9 per cent growth range, reflecting relatively conservative outlooks on industrial credit expansion, possibly due to limited exposure to large industrial borrowers and a stronger orientation towards retail and MSME lending,” the survey added.

The survey also highlighted a strongly optimistic outlook for retail loan growth, with expectations heavily skewed towards high double-digit expansion. Credit growth in the agriculture and allied sectors is expected to be around 9–13 per cent during the January–June period of 2026.

The infrastructure sector including power, roads, and telecom is expected to witness strong demand for term loans over the next six months, followed by metals, iron and steel, real estate and construction.

Auto and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and engineering goods also feature prominently among the top sectors anticipated to see increased borrowing activity. Other sectors such as chemicals (excluding pharma), leather and leather products, and rubber and plastics received comparatively fewer mentions.