US intel sounds alarm on India-Pak flashpoint, flags Pakistan’s expanding missile capability

A fresh assessment by the US intelligence community says recent nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan were brought down after intervention by US President Donald Trump. But the report also makes it clear that the region is far from stable.

The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment notes that even if both countries seem unwilling to slide back into open conflict, the risk has not gone away. The bigger worry, it says, is that terrorist groups could still trigger a fresh crisis at any time.

Advertisement

Past attacks, present risks

The report points to the April 2025 terror attack near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir as a reminder of how quickly things can spiral. That attack left 26 people dead after gunmen came down from the hills and opened fire on tourists in Baisaran Valley.

Such incidents, the assessment says, show how fragile the situation remains between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

“President Trump’s intervention de-escalated the most recent nuclear tensions, and we assess that neither country seeks to return to open conflict,” said the report, while cautioning that “conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises.”

Wider security concerns in the region

The assessment also looks beyond India-Pakistan ties. It says, “ISIS-K maintains a foothold in the region and aspires to conduct external attacks.” At the same time, the Taliban has acted against the group and may have stopped some plots.

There are also concerns about Pakistan’s missile programme. The report says Islamabad is working on more advanced systems, which could eventually allow it to hit targets beyond South Asia.

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban are another flashpoint. The report refers to ongoing clashes and says the situation is unlikely to settle unless the Taliban cuts links with militant groups that target Pakistan.

After the Pahalgam attack, India launched ‘Operation Sindoor’ on the night of May 6 and 7, striking nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. More than 100 militants were killed in the operation, including members of Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen.