Can the opposition rebound in 2026—a year with five key elections?

Year 2026 will be a busy year for political parties with as many as four states—West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala—and the Union Territory of Puducherry lined up for elections.

What is specifically significant here is that three of these states are currently ruled by the BJP’s arch rivals—Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, the Secular Progressive Alliance led by M K Stalin’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) coalition and Pinarayi Vijayan of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Kerala.

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Assam, of course, is with the BJP with Himanta Biswa Sarma as the Chief Minister. At the same time, Puducherry has a coalition government headed by the All India N R Congress (AINRC) with Chief Minister N Rangasamy supported by the BJP.

With two decisive victories in Delhi and Bihar, 2025 was a good year for the BJP and the NDA, but for its rivals it was not so good. While the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP was defeated in Delhi, the Mahagathbandhan of Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Congress, and the Left were no match for the BJP-led NDA in Bihar.

But, 2026 can be a good year for opposition parties, as except for Assam, it is the opposition parties that are ruling the other three states—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee will be fiercely defending her government against a resurgent BJP, while the Congress and Left will try to recover some ground.

In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF will be looking at securing an unprecedented third consecutive term. But the recent local body elections saw a remarkable comeback of the United Democratic Front (UDF) and a BJP-led NDA win, ending Kerala’s bipolar politics, and giving it a new interesting turn.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK is facing a challenge from the AIADMK, which now has the backing of the BJP. The AIADMK did not contest with the NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but separately it secured around 20.5 per cent of the vote share while the BJP-led NDA gained around 18.2 per cent. If the DMDK vote share is added in, the total NDA bloc would have been around 41 per cent.

Analysts say the split in the opposition vote helped the DMK-led INDIA bloc win all 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

As for Assam, BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma will be fighting against a resurgent Congress while in Puducherry, the AINRC–BJP coalition has the challenge of keeping together a fragile alliance against the DMK and the Congress.