All eyes on Seemanchal and Magadh as Bihar braces for decisive phase of assembly polls

After a record 65.08 per cent voter turnout in the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, there is noticeable enthusiasm among voters for the second phase of polling on Tuesday.

The historic turnout has raised the political temperatures and the heartbeats of the 1,302 candidates contesting from 122 assembly constituencies across 20 districts in the final phase. Over 3.7 crore voters will exercise their franchise to decide their fate.

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Politically, these 122 constituencies are divided into three major regions—Champaran, Seemanchal, and the Shahabad–Magadh regions.

The Champaran region, comprising the East and West Champaran districts, has long been considered the BJP’s stronghold. In 2020, the NDA had won nine out of 12 seats in East Champaran and eight of the nine seats in West Champaran. However, with changed socio-political equations, the Indo-Nepal border districts have turned into political battlegrounds. The INDIA Alliance and Jan Suraaj Party are trying hard to breach the BJP fortress.

In the Shahabad–Magadh region, where the INDIA bloc had won 46 seats and the NDA, 23 in 2020, the voting patterns of Yadav, Kurmi, Rajput, Dalit, and Bhumihar communities have emerged as decisive factors. Political observers believe that if the NDA fails to strengthen its hold in Shahabad–Magadh, it may find it difficult to return to power.

Polling on 24 seats across four districts of the Seemanchal region, where Muslims constitute 40 to 70 per cent of the electorate, will play a decisive role in determining the future of Bihar’s power equation.

These constituencies have traditionally been strongholds of the RJD–Congress-led INDIA Alliance. In the 2020 Assembly elections, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM disrupted that equation by winning five seats in the region. This time too, the AIMIM has put its full strength into these constituencies.

If votes are not divided between the AIMIM and the INDIA bloc, Tejashwi Yadav’s path to power could become smoother.

Twelve ministers from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s cabinet are in the fray. Among the prominent JD(U) candidates are Bijendra Prasad Yadav from Supaul and Leshi Singh from Dhamdaha.

Prominent BJP leaders contesting this election include former deputy chief minister Renu Devi from Bettiah, Neeraj Kumar Singh Bablu from Chhatapur, Nitish Mishra from Jhanjharpur, and Dr Prem Kumar, who is attempting to win the Gaya Town constituency for the eighth time.

The lone independent MLA in Bihar and a cabinet minister, Sumit Kumar Singh, is contesting again from Chakai.

Other notable candidates in this phase include LJP (Ram Vilas) Bihar president Raju Tiwari from Gobindganj and Congress state president Rajesh Ram from Kutumba.

Comprehensive security arrangements have been made for the second phase of polling, which will be even stricter than the first phase. Extra vigilance is being maintained in districts along international and interstate borders. Security has been strengthened in seven districts bordering the India–Nepal boundary, which has been completely sealed.