The result of the ill-informed criticism of the one aspect of managing the Covid-19 pandemic which India got right ~ its vaccine diplomacy or humanitarian outreach termed the Vaccine Maitri initiative under which it exported 600 lakh doses to its neighbouring countries and others in the global South ~ is now apparent. For, China announced last week that one million Covid-19 vaccines would be provided by it to Nepal under grant assistance to follow up on the 800,000 doses of Sinopharm’s BBIBP-CorV shots it sent in March.

That Beijing’s move comes at a time when not only is Nepal’s coronavirus crisis deepening but its political crisis has imploded may be a coincidence. But if so, then it is a fortuitous one for China’s South Asia strategy. Beijing’s announcement, incidentally, comes days after Nepalese President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s letter to Indian President Ram Nath Kovind urging him to take the initiative to ensure vaccines for Nepal.

India had hitherto been instrumental in Nepal’s vaccination drive which began in January this year. Nepal currently has one of the highest Covid-19 viral reproduction rates in the world and as it struggles to acquire vaccines, it has been reaching out to various countries for help. Nepal has a higher number of cases per million than India and by mid-July new case numbers could reach 800,000 with a predicted death toll of 40,000.

The Ministry of Health said in a statement: “Since coronavirus cases have spiked beyond the capacity of the health system and hospitals have run out of beds, the situation is unmanageable.” The ministry also said it had no more vaccines. Meanwhile, the widely perceived to be pro-China Prime Minister, Mr KP Oli, having lost a no-confidence motion earlier this month, is fighting for his political survival and that of his policy of “standing up to India”.

With Parliament dissolved on the night of 21-22 May ~ the Constitutionality of that decision is currently being examined by the Nepalese apex court amid great acrimony ~ the stability of the country is in serious danger of being undermined as the pandemic threatens to spin out of control. There is, therefore, reason for South Block to take seriously local reports which suggest there is a groundswell of support in a significant section of the population for China for coming to Nepal’s aid in its hour of need.

The Chinese embassy in Kathmandu, in its official statement, iterated that it would support Nepal “though thick and thin”. “Despite huge demand for the vaccines both in China and across the world at present, the Chinese government has prioritised Nepal in providing the vaccines, fully demonstrating the great importance it shares the bond with Nepal,” the statement said. Shorn of the hyperbole, the message is clear. India has its work cut out in trying to draw Nepal out of the Chinese strategic embrace which the nowaborted Vaccine Maitri initiative had provided it an opportunity to do.