Building a winning electoral narrative involves selectively emphasizing past events to create a compelling and politically useful interpretation of reality. Such narratives simplify reality so that voters can choose a partisan perspective as the dominant truth. Wily politicians insist on a cherry-picked “wrong” and simultaneously insist on the same with their own partisan existence to suggest it as the only remedial option. Such past events may not necessarily be false, lies or misinformation, but it could just be about selective emphasis ~ but that too could still be equally malicious, spiteful, and tantamount to Machiavellian politics.
The triumphant return of the once-slammed “Dark Prince” of Bangladeshi politics, Tarique Rahman, the son of former Prime Minister Khaleeda Zia (Bangladesh National Party), led to a flurry of carefully-curated statements that suggested just that sort of cherry-picking to trigger reactions. Ending his self-imposed exile which he recollected dramatically, “after a long 6314 days”, he continued with the theatrical invocation of Martin Luther King Jr’s “I have a dream” allusion with his own twist of “I have a plan for the people of my country, for my country,” in front of a mesmerised 50 lakh cadres who had gathered to see their political messiah! Ut But Tarique Rahman would know best that the rival in the current situation is no longer his traditional foe, i.e., ousted Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (banned by decree by the caretaker Yunus Muhammad dispensation), but the more extremist Jamaat-e-Islami-like forces that have the electoral winds in their sails.
With the Awami League banned from participating in the General Elections slated for February, it should have been a cakewalk for Tarique Rahman’s BNP ~ but counterintuitively, that is not the case. There are independent spot opinion polls and almost all of them suggest a close call between the BNP and the Jamaat-like forces (with many even giving the more radicalized Jamaat-like forces an edge). The supposedly “independent” and unbiased Muhammad Yunus is in the chair, but Tarique knows Yunus could tilt (especially with the administration under him in the run-up) to favour the Jamaat.
Already, Yunus is subtly allowing the environment to get polarised and all that helps the more extremist Jamaat as opposed to the relatively moderate option of BNP. The Awami League supporters are likely to either desist from voting for their traditional rivals in BNP, or not vote at all, thereby strengthening the Jamaat further. Situationally, this calls for Tarique to recall incidents from the past to drum up emotions and support for him as the ideal “nationalist” as opposed to the more bigoted and hardline option of Jamaat. One such carefully nuanced statement that is aimed at sounding “nationalistic” (hence attempting to break some Awami League supporters towards its side) as opposed to “radicalized” (weaning those worried about a “Shariaized” Bangladesh) was his positing of the contentious water issue, but with a sting in the tail, “I want my share of the water.
Of course, I don’t want to see another Felani hanging. Of course, we will not accept that.” The Felani hanging alluded to by Tarique harks back to the 2011 shooting of a 15-year-old illegal Bangladeshi immigrant into India, Felani Khatun, who was allegedly shot by a BSF constable whilst attempting to cross back to Bangladesh. Images of her suspended body on the border fence had horrified people on both sides of the border as both governments condemned the incident ~ but the inconclusive legal proceedings to nail the alleged BSF constable (despite repeated reassessments) had hurt the Bangladeshi pride and people, as indeed, been slammed by human rights groups.
The fact that the Indian Government had condemned the incident then itself is obviously not remembered on the Bangladeshi side. The incident became reflective of India’s supposed “Big Brother” affliction as far as Bangladesh was concerned though later exchanges and deliberations thawed the equation between Delhi and Dhaka. Today, Tarique is knowingly reinvoking an incident that happened during Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League rule to demonstrate their weakness in handling national pride and for Tarique to appropriate the credentials of an assertive nationalist. But there are umpteen incidents of individual complicity from both sides that must be recognised as such and not attributable to a State. Conveniently suggesting a deliberate role on to the other State can derail harmonious relations.
But Tarique knows that singing a understanding note with India will not garner votes, whereas grandstanding on an isolated (even when condemned by the Indian State) incident that is a result of an individual, rather than State-sponsored action, will help build electoral traction, resonance, and preference. Obviously, Tarique would not like to recall the incident of 2001 when 16 BSF men were killed on the Indo-Bangladesh border with the horrific sight of a dead BSF jawan tied to a pole and carried like an animal carcass. Many of the other returned bodies of BSF jawans bore signs of barbaric mutilation. There had been murmurs of a botched and errant patrol by the BSF wading into an inextricable trap on the Bangladesh side ~ but that did not justify the torture and shooting of BSF jawans in cold blood. Even then, many had speculated that the Sheikh Hasina government had resorted to a deliberate action to shed its “pro-India” image.
There are countless such instances of excesses and politically “manufactured” incidents on both sides to swing moods, but the selective emphasis on some, and not to all of them (as that could weaken the narrative-building exercise) is unhinged partisanship and amoral politics. That Felani-like incidents will be raked up increasingly is but to be expected, as Bangladesh gets into the last lap of electoral hustings. Delhi should be careful and mature in handling such provocation as that would tantamount to falling for the carefully laid out bait. Perhaps Delhi would still be punting on a Tarique-led BNP victory as opposed to that of the Jamaat-forces, as that could be even more deleterious for India. But for now, expect the cherry-picked instances, statements and insinuations to ride the airwaves and Delhi would be especially targeted for demonstrating competitive political “muscularity.” Tarique Rahman is after all a chip of the old block, and that may just be the reason for Delhi to tolerate him patiently as opposed to gunning for him and risk getting the Jamaat in its neighbourhood.
(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), and former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)