A planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may command headlines, but it is unlikely to shift the trajectory of the Ukraine war. Despite Mr Trump’s repeated claims of being the leader who can end the conflict “in 24 hours,” the gulf between Russia and Ukraine is too vast ~ and too uncompromising ~ to be bridged by handshakes and high-level optics. The fundamentals of Moscow’s position remain frozen in time.
Russia’s June memorandum makes sweeping demands: recognition of its sovereignty over five Ukrainian regions, demilitarisation of Ukraine, and a ban on foreign military presence. These are not negotiation points, they are ultimatums. The language may be tailored to seem diplomatic, but the subtext is one of surrender. There is little evidence, either publicly or behind closed doors, that the Kremlin has altered this position. Ukraine, meanwhile, is not standing still or pleading for outside rescue. Kyiv continues to strike at Russia’s energy infrastructure with increasing sophistication, even as it faces nightly aerial assaults.
For President Volodymyr Zelenskky and his government, any agreement that cedes territory or locks Ukraine into neutrality would be seen as a betrayal of sovereignty and national sacrifice. Mr Trump’s role adds another layer of complexity. His relationship with Mr Putin has long been a subject of unease in Western capitals. From previously casting Mr Zelenskky as a “dictator” to refusing to clearly condemn Russian aggression, Mr Trump’s positioning risks legitimising Russia’s core demands. Even now, as he flirts with the idea of trilateral talks, the Russian side shows no willingness to include Kyiv.
Mr Putin’s message is clear: if peace is to be brokered, it must be on his terms, not through compromise. Many in Kyiv fear that Mr Trump’s impulsive diplomacy could pressure Ukraine into making territorial concessions. As the war drags on, Western unity remains vital ~ not only for Ukraine’s defence, but to prevent peace from becoming a euphemism for capitulation. Some speculate that the Kremlin’s openness to talks at this stage is less about diplomacy and more about strategy. Mr Trump’s threats of secondary sanctions on Moscow’s trading partners loom large. A summit could be a way to buy time, diffuse international pressure, or even sway Mr Trump with appeals to his deal-making ego. For Mr Putin, a meeting that softens American resolve or isolates Ukraine diplomatically would be a win, even without a formal ceasefire.
Mr Zelenskky has warned that excluding Ukraine from any peace process is dangerous. War, after all, is not merely a geopolitical chess game ~ it is the daily reality of suffering, resistance, and survival. A peace settlement imposed without Ukraine’s consent would be as unsustainable as it is unjust. If Mr Trump truly seeks to end the war, he must abandon illusions of a solo breakthrough. Any lasting peace must be forged not between powerbrokers, but between peoples, and on terms rooted in justice, not coercion.