In February 2023, when Turkey and Syria faced a devastating earthquake, which killed almost 52,000 people, India was amongst the first countries to respond. India launched ‘Operation Dost’ where it deployed a field hospital and sent tons of relief material, hoping to change Indo-Turkey relationship. Indian rescue teams worked around the clock pulling survivors from rubble. The Turkish ambassador thanked India for its support and for some time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stopped his anti-India tirade. PM Modi also met him on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi in September the same year and they discussed enhancing trade ties.
Simultaneously, Turkey was seeking to challenge Saudi Arabia for leadership of the Islamic world and hence moving closer to Pakistan. With the passage of time, everything went back to the way it was and Turkey’s statements on Kashmir and support to Pakistan again eroded ties. Turkish media continuously played out anti-India narratives. The turning point was when it, alongside Azerbaijan, backed Pakistan with military and diplomatic support during Operation Sindoor. Pakistan used Turkish drones and missiles, none of which were successful. The result was an Indian boycott of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Tourism from India, amongst the largest to Turkey, and a major revenue earner, dropped drastically. Cancellations surged, destination weddings were called off, Indian universities severed ties with Turkish counterparts and e-commerce platforms felt compelled to drop Turkish brands. Indian tourist spending in Turkey and Azerbaijan was USD 400 million in 2024, which has since reduced substantially. Simultaneously, India moved to challenge both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia, Azerbaijan’s adversary and the nation standing against the Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan axis, began procuring Indian and French military equipment.
In its recent Republic Day parade in Yerevan, Armenia showcased new military equipment now deployed in the country as a counter to Azerbaijan. The equipment includes Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, Swathi weapon locating radars, Akash air defence systems and multiple 155mm guns. These are amongst the most powerful weapon systems in the world. Azerbaijan had objected repeatedly to India and France over sale of military equipment to Armenia, which both nations ignored. India is now playing a similar game in Turkey’s backyard, causing panic in Ankara. Turkey has long standing disputes with Greece and Cyprus. With Greece it is over the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, largely involving territorial waters and airspace, based on Turkey’s ‘Blue Homeland Doctrine.’
With Cyprus, it is over splitting of the island following a military invasion which created the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus in 1974, currently only recognized by Turkey. India is moving closer to both Greece and Cyprus. The recent visit of Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides to India led to both nations upgrading their relationship to a Strategic Partnership. Six MOUs were inked which included a Roadmap for Defence and Security Cooperation (2026–2031).
The roadmap, apart from opening sale of defence equipment, also includes maritime security, cybersecurity, intelligence coordination and other aspects. India considers Cyprus a ‘gateway’ into Europe’s security architecture. India and Greece had already elevated their ties to a Strategic Partnership in August 2023. Their defence minister visited India in February this year and what emerged was a Joint Declaration of Intent which covered co -production, co-development, and potential export of defence equipment. While Greece is a member of NATO, Turkey’s veto has ensured Cyprus can never be a member, though it is a part of the EU, which Turkey is not.
While both nations can procure military equipment from India, Greece is restricted by its equipment interoperability with NATO and has traditionally relied on US and European allies. Greece has placed a Liaison Officer at the Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region in Gurugram. The visit by Indian ships for joint exercises in both Cyprus and Greece imply Indian military power is present at the doorstep of Ankara. Cyprus displayed interest in procuring India’s Brahmos missiles and kamikaze drones like Nagastra-1 and SkyStriker. There is a possibility that equipment procured by Cyprus could be deployed in Greece.
The induction of sophisticated weaponry from India into the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey’s backyard, could change the balance of power of the region. While no deals have been announced yet, it is evident that these are on the cards. Turkey had always believed it could challenge India with no consequences. It backed Pakistan on Kashmir, provided arms and missiles not expecting India to hit it back in its own backyard. Cyprus is Turkey’s greatest geopolitical instability. Any military partnership with Cyprus is a matter of concern. Cyprus is surrounded by Turkey, Greece and Israel, alongside Mediterranean energy routes.
A strong Cyprus challenges Turkey’s plans for dominating the Eastern Mediterranean, which it considers its backyard. Turkey’s relations with Israel are currently fraught and an added headache would be Cyprus with missiles. India’s intervention in the Eastern Mediterranean is a clear message to Turkey; you desist from your actions in South Asia if you desire to maintain p e ace in yo ur neighbourhood. The same message flowed to Azerbaijan with India arming Armenia. The military balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia is no longer one-sided favouring Azerbaijan.
Things will so on change in T urkey’s neighbourhood. Indian ships would be visiting ports in Cyprus and Greece, and Indian armed forces would be conducting joint exercises with both nations. Turkey is facing economic problems and its insecurity is on the rise. It is at this time that India is moving powerful military equipment into the region to nations which are a challenge to Turkey’s domination. There is little Turkey can do. It is aware that its objections are meaningless for India, especially after the way it acted post Indian support in Operation Dost.
While many in Ankara advocate that Turkey challenge India by supplying Pakistan with more military equipment, they fail to realize that Turkey cannot provide it without payment and Pakistan lacks funds to pay. A better option would be to approach India seeking a quid pro quo, though it is unlikely that India would accept. Trust between the two nations has eroded. India is now paying Turkey back in the same coin. The possibility of a sale has already shaken Ankara; what happens when it is delivered can be imagined. The firmest message of intent which India could convey is by providing Cyprus with a line of credit to procure the Brahmos missiles. India is no longer pushing its soft power but directly intervening in regions which display an anti-India stance.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)