In a dramatic reversal of policy, the Modi government has agreed to conduct a caste census ~ an idea it once vehemently opposed. This shift, coming ahead of key assembly elections in Bihar and after the Pahalgam terror attack, appears less like a moral reckoning and more like a calculated political manoeuvre. The move is set to reshape the electoral chessboard, particularly in regions where caste remains a central axis of power and identity.
The sudden shift also reveals how electoral pragmatism often trumps ideological consistency. What was once dismissed as divisive is now being recast as necessary, with little explanation for the change. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which heads the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), had long resisted calls for a caste-based census. The official argument rested on the potential for social division. Unofficially, it was a hedge against disrupting the BJP’s carefully cultivated narrative of panHindu unity that transcends caste.
But with the ground shifting beneath their feet ~ especially in caste-sensitive states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh ~ the party now seems to be rethinking its strategy. This U-turn directly undercuts the main plank of the opposition. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has championed the cause of caste enumeration under the slogan “jitni abaadi, utna haq” (rights proportional to population). As Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Mr Gandhi has framed the issue as one of social justice, arguing that without updated caste data, policies for backward classes are shooting in the dark. His party, along with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav and the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, has made the caste census a rallying cry to consolidate backward class voters.
The Modi government’s decision, then, is not merely an administrative one ~ it is a political countermove. By appropriating the opposition’s agenda, the BJP aims to rob them of their most potent electoral weapon. It also allows the party to reframe the caste debate on its own terms: not as a left-liberal demand, but as a nationalist commitment to inclusivity. There is also a broader, long-term calculation at play. The BJP’s core electoral base ~ traditionally upper castes and urban voters ~ has already been consolidated. What it now seeks is deeper penetration into the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), many of whom feel underrepresented despite their demographic heft.
The caste census, if handled deftly, could offer the data needed to recalibrate welfare schemes and reservations, thereby expanding the party’s social base without alienating its core. Yet, the move is fraught with risk. Once caste data is out in the open, it could spark new demands for quotas, disrupt existing reservation equations, and unleash a wave of political bargaining. The BJP, having opened a Pandora’s box, must now brace for its consequences. In the end, the caste census is not just about numbers ~ it is about power. And in that pursuit, no party is above playing the long game.