With time running out on a deadline set by Donald Trump, behind-the-scenes diplomacy has picked up pace, with efforts focused on securing a short pause in the fighting involving Iran. According to Axios, discussions are focused on a possible 45-day ceasefire that could open the door to a longer-term settlement.
The talks come at a critical moment. Mediators and officials believe the next two days could decide whether tensions ease or spiral into a broader conflict with serious consequences for the region.
Last window before escalation, say mediators
Citing multiple US, Israeli and regional sources, Axios reported that hopes of a quick breakthrough remain low, with only a narrow chance of progress in the next 48 hours. Mediators have reportedly told Iranian officials that there is little room left for delay and that this is the final opportunity to avoid large-scale damage.
The urgency follows a slight extension in the original deadline. Trump pushed the timeline forward by about 20 hours, setting a new cut-off for Tuesday evening, in what sources described as a final attempt to keep negotiations alive.
Officials familiar with the situation said plans for a joint US-Israel strike targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure are already prepared. However, the extension signals a last effort to secure a deal before any military action is taken.
What is on the table in the proposed deal
Talks are being conducted through mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, along with indirect communication between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The proposal under discussion reportedly has two stages. The first involves a 45-day ceasefire, during which both sides would try to negotiate a permanent end to hostilities. This pause could be extended if needed.
The second phase would aim at a broader agreement, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, either by reducing it or moving it out of the country.
Sources said these issues remain key leverage points for Iran. People familiar with the talks say Iran is not in a hurry to give away its key leverage just for a brief pause in fighting. Instead, negotiators are looking at smaller, practical steps that could slowly build some trust in the initial stage.
At the same time, there is a clear push to make sure any ceasefire actually holds on the ground. Iranian officials have indicated they do not want a repeat of past situations like Gaza or Lebanon, where truces existed on paper but broke down quickly.
The White House has not commented on the ongoing discussions.
Fears of wider fallout in the Gulf
Diplomats are also worried about the regional impact if talks fail. Any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure could trigger retaliation affecting oil and water facilities in Gulf countries.
Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy has warned that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal, particularly for the US and Israel, signalling long-term disruption risks.