Telangana, the youngest state in the country, is going for Assembly polls on December 7 for the second time since its birth amid speculation of a defeat for the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi or a hung Assembly.
In a fast-changing poll scenario, contrary to initial predictions of an easy victory for the TRS, pollsters now see a close contest. Facing an almost direct contest between the Mahakootami, (The Grand Alliance- a front formed by the Congress, CPI and the Telugu Desam) and the TRS, the state will decide whether to return the TRS, or give a chance to the newly formed front.
The Mahakootami has caught the chief minister K Chandrashekhar Rao on the back foot with sworn enemies Congress and TDP putting aside their bitter past and coming together with Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS) of veteran Telangana activist M. Kodandaram, and the Communist Party of India.
There are other smaller players like the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), YSRCP, Lok Satta and Aam Aadmi Party, which have crowded the electoral scene. The TRS is contesting alone, with an understanding with the AIMIM.
There are mixed poll predictions. The C voter poll has predicted a defeat for the TRS, which it says would win only 42 seats while the Grand alliance could bag 64, the BJP four and others nine. Contrary to this, the CNX-Times Now poll has predicted that the TRS would get 70 seats leaving 31 to the Congress, three to the TDP and eight AIMIM.
In the 2014 elections, the TRS had won 63 seats with 34 per cent vote share, the Congress won 21 seats with 25.2 per cent vote share and TDP had bagged 14.7 per cent vote share. The combined vote share of Congress and TDP amounts to 39.9 per cent. But in the last four and a half years, 27 MLAs have defected from various parties to the TRS making its strength 90. The BJP is aiming for a shot at power though it has a presence only in pockets.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the campaign criticised chief minister KC Rao as superstitious, one who believes in astrology, pujas and mirchi-nimboo (chilly and lemon). He was not wrong, as his astrologers rule KCR. Predictions got more precise in the run-up to the date of advancing polls. KCR faithfully followed the exact time of the cabinet decision to recommend dissolution to the time the governor would be approached with the letter of request.
TRS hopes to reap the benefits of going for early elections while the Mahakootami is expecting to upset the dreams of the ruling party. Apart from investing in the agriculture sector, the government had also introduced several social welfare schemes in its tenure, including free housing, assistance to brides under Kalyana Lakshmi and Shaadi Mubaarak.
But the party can no longer afford to ride on the Telangana movement wave, as the voters are demanding delivery of its poll promises. By providing more freebies and cash benefits in its 2018 manifesto, the TRS hopes to mobilize the support of the farmers, women, pensioners and jobless youth besides offering reservation to minorities.
The opposition is raising issues like the agrarian crisis and absence of jobs and also depending on anti-incumbency. The Grand Alliance has promised many things to the electorate in its manifesto. It has promised for the farm sector a Rs two-lakh loan waiver at one go and the setting up of a Rs 10,000 crore fund for price stabilization and market intervention, schools for Muslims, free power to churches and mosques and making Urdu the second official language in the state besides reservations to Telangana locals in new industries.
The Congress has a strong presence in Telangana. Traditionally, it had the backing of Muslims (13 per cent) and Scheduled Castes (17 per cent). The party is hoping for the return of its loyal vote bank of Muslims and Dalits as well as the TDP votes of Backward Classes (BC), which is 50 per cent of the voters in Telangana.
It will be difficult to predict how the Muslims will vote. Though they are concentrated in Hyderabad, Secunderabad and surrounding areas, they are also in good numbers in Nizamabad and Karimnagar. There is some minority vote in every Assembly constituency, which could affect a close election. During 2014, bosom friends for decades, Congress and AIMIM had parted ways after which the latter moved closer to the TRS and both gained from it.
For Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, it is crucial to defeat his bête noire KCR and gain back influence in Hyderabad through the Mahakootami. He has brought few things to the table like campaign resources, cadres on the ground, settler votes, and support from industrialists unhappy with KCR. The settler votes account for 15 per cent of the electorate.
A victory will strengthen Naidu in his efforts at the national level to form an anti-BJP front. Similarly, a victory in Telangana will bolster Rahul Gandhi’s leadership within the party and on the national scene. Ultimately it all depends on the mood of the people and they seem to want a change.