The flames that engulfed Nepal’s Parliament and other prominent buildings this week have cast long shadows across South Asia. For India, the sudden resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli after violent protests left more than 20 dead is not just a crisis next door, but a reminder of how fragile its neighbourhood has become. The trigger may have been a clumsy social media ban, but the protests rapidly grew into an anti-corruption uprising, tapping into deep generational anger.
Parliament was stormed, government buildings and politicians’ homes set alight, and nearly a thousand prisoners freed in the chaos. By the time the ban was hastily lifted, the government had already lost control. Mr Oli’s departure has left a vacuum at the top, with no clear leadership and little sign of an organised opposition capable of steering the country out of turmoil. For Delhi, the shock is twofold. First, Nepal’s crisis echoes the convulsions that rocked Sri Lanka in 2022 and Bangladesh last year.
Once again, a neighbour has seen a popular uprising topple a government with little warning. Secondly, the unrest came barely a week before Mr Oli was due in Delhi for talks – a visit that could have offered India an opportunity to mend frayed ties after years of mistrust over border disputes and China’s growing footprint. The stakes are unusually high. Nepal is not just another neighbour: it shares an open border with five Indian states, a centuries-old flow of people, and an economic relationship that makes Kathmandu heavily dependent on Indian exports.
Over three million Nepalis live or work in India, and 32,000 Gorkhas serve in the Indian army under a unique arrangement. Instability in Nepal reverberates instantly in Indian towns and villages across the border, where families are interlinked and trade flows daily. Delhi also cannot ignore the strategic dimension. With the Western Theatre Command of China just across the Himalayas, and Beijing already competing for influence in Kathmandu, the political vacuum in Nepal opens another avenue for geopolitical friction. India’s challenge will be to safeguard its equities without appearing heavy-handed or opportunistic, a balance it has not always managed well in the past.
The crisis exposes another vulnerability: New Delhi’s tendency to be caught off guard by sudden upheavals in its neighbourhood. From Colombo to Dhaka and now Kathmandu, India has been reactive rather than proactive, scrambling to respond after the streets have spoken. Yet great power aspirations cannot rest on an unstable backyard. South Asia’s political fires, if left unattended, will continue to singe India’s regional ambitions. For now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for peace and his expression of anguish are the right notes. But the hard part lies ahead. India must reach out to Nepal’s youth, offer avenues for education and employment, and rebuild trust with all political actors. Otherwise, the message from Kathmandu will be sobering: when neighbours burn, India cannot remain untouched.