It was Benjamin Netanyahu who pushed Donald Trump into the Iran conflict promising multiple gains, including regime change, degradation of the IRGC and surrender of Iran with just a short and swift bombing campaign. He did this when talks in Geneva were progressing smoothly and Iran had almost agreed to most of Trump’s demands. Netanyahu’s strategy backfired. The conflict dragged on with Iran destroying US assets in the region while blocking the Hormuz Strait, embarrassing Trump.
It forced Trump to repeatedly change his end state while prematurely declaring victory. He was mocked across the globe, resulting in the acronym TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Desperate to exit the conflict, Trump accepted mediation by the world’s two most unreliable nations, Pakistan and Qatar. Both would prefer Iran remaining capable of keeping Israel under check based on their enmity with it. No wonder Israel was unhappy. There were multiple rounds of negotiations leading to the MOU. The final agreement still needs endless rounds of discussions. It was reported that Qatar exploited its holding of Iran’s locked funds to push Tehran to agree for dialogue.
It did not release the funds, but opened a line of credit. The MOU indicates that the war has not ended, but is on pause. Qatar became the chief negotiator, pushing Pakistan to the side, though Shehbaz Sharief continues to claim credit. He has even flown to Switzerland on a holiday, claiming to be involved in negotiations. When the ceasefire came into effect on 8 April, the agreement included peace in Lebanon, a non-negotiable subject for Iran. It was initially denied by US Vice President JD Vance and Netanyahu, but mentioned by Pakistan, which had negotiated it. Ultimately the US was forced to concede.
Netanyahu continued operations in Lebanon, angering Trump, who accused him of deliberately breaking the ceasefire. Trump’s frustration ensured that Israel was not officially consulted on terms of the MOU, though reports mention the governments remained in touch. At the G7 summit, Trump stated, “Too many people have been killed. You (Netanyahu) don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you’re looking for somebody,” adding, “I suggested to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbollah because, to be honest with you, I think they’d do a better job.”
Even the current agreement remains in limbo due to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Trump also made it clear that Israel has no role in negotiations nor in the final agreement. He stated in a press interview that Israel “won’t have any choice” but to accept any potential deal to end the war with Iran. He added, “I call the shots. He (Netanyahu) doesn’t call the shots.” It was a day after the MOU was singed and released that Netanyahu addressed the media. He admitted that there are times when he and Trump do not see ‘eye-to-eye.’ His press conference was aimed at selling the war to his people.
He mentioned, “We have fended off an immediate threat of annihilation,” implying Iran was close to a nuclear weapon, which was wrong, as Iran was anyway surrendering its nuclear weapons programme in ongoing talks in Geneva. Further, after the June 2025 attacks, statements issued contradict Netanyahu’s claims. Trump stated, “Monumental Damage was done to all nuclear sites in Iran. Obliteration is an accurate term.” The Israeli Atomic Energy Commission statement read, “American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, have set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.”
Either the attacks failed or Netanyahu was lying, desperate to justify his current attacks. The MOU specifically mentions Lebanon. Netanyahu refuses to pull back his troops from Lebanon, a decision which could be a stumbling block in negotiations as it remains a key Iranian demand. Netanyahu is being questioned within his own country on why he is being sidelined by the US. The Israeli government’s defence is that Trump’s MOU is not binding on it. The talks, if they follow the MOU pattern, send uncomfortable hints to Israel. The first is that Iran is being permitted to dictate what will be the scenario in Lebanon, sidelining the Lebanese government and more importantly, Israel.
It also implies that Iran would continue to nurture Hezbollah, enhancing its capabilities, while Israel would remain a bystander, officially unable to respond. Trump has said: “Without the US, there would be no Israel. Without me, there would be no Israel because no other president was willing to do what I did.” This is a warning that Israel would face US wrath if it attempts to sabotage ongoing peace talks. Secondly, there was no mention of restricting Iran’s missile capabilities in the MOU. Trump stated in a press conference, “I think it’s okay for Iran (to have ballistic missiles).” This implies that the US seeks to balance Israel’s military power by Iran in the long term, to prevent any future Israeli leader from considering a greater Israel by annexing Arab lands, thereby setting the region on fire.
Thirdly, by dropping his insistence on the Abraham accords, Trump is ensuring that Israel continues to have enemies in the region. Fourthly, Netanyahu’s election promises over the years included ensuring that there would be no threats to Israel and it would be the only power in the region. This is no longer true. While he has demolished Gaza, Hamas remains in control and Israel has antagonized Palestinians, who continue to suffer hardships. Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan is dead. At some stage Gazans would again rise in anger due to prolonged suffering.
In Lebanon and Yemen, despite attacks by Israel, Iran’s proxies remain formidable. They will regain their capabilities with time. Syria, with the overthrow of the Assad regime, has been the only success story. However, Israel’s forces occupying what it terms as ‘security zones’ in all its neighbouring countries remains a sour point. Trump’s master stroke will emerge in the final agreement a couple of months later. The agreement will block Iran’s nuclear dreams and stop its enrichment; however, it will not contain its conventional military power.
Iran and its proxies will remain a threat to Israel and the region. Israel’s dreams of regional dominance and a greater Israel have ended. It cannot attempt another misadventure against Iran as US support would be non-existent. Finally, West Asia, including Israel, will remain dependent on the US for their security, making it the undisputed power broker of the region.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)