Talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan held in Istanbul and brokered by Turkey and Qatar, have ended in a stalemate. Last minute attempts by the hosts to bring about a settlement have failed. However, the ceasefire agreed to in Qatar continues to hold. Talks are likely to resume on 6 November. Both sides blamed the other for the collapse, giving identical reasons. The official comment from Islamabad and Kabul has been that midway through talks, negotiators received phone calls from their respective capitals, after which they hardened their stands, resulting in failure.
There were major differences. Pakistan insisted Afghanistan reign in the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), which has regularly targeted its forces in Khyb er Pakhtunkhwa (KP). This implied that Afghanistan would be held accountable for Pakistan’s security. On their part, Afghan negotiators demanded Pakistan block the use of its airspace for US drones targeting Afghanistan. The Taliban have repeatedly mentioned that the TTP is a Pakistani problem and does not exist on their soil, while Pakistan claims otherwise. On US drones, Pakistan said that it has an agreement with the US on opening its airspace, which it cannot break, though the US was not directly named.
It also refused to reign in the ISIK (Islamic State-Khorasan Province), which had sought to overthrow the Kabul regime. As per Tolo news “even the mediators” from Turkey and Qatar “were surprised and upset by the behaviour of the Pakistani side during the talks.” After the failure of the talks, both sides began threatening the other of strikes in case they were attacked. Internally, the media has begun playing up national sentiments, each blaming the other. On Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours, the Afghan foreign affairs minister Amir Khan Mutaqqi had quipped in Delhi, “We have five other neighbours – all happy with us – and only Pakistan has problems.” Pakistan currently has tense borders with all its three major neighbours, India, Iran and Afghanistan. It is time for Islamabad to look inwards and re-evaluate its strategies.
It has been Pakistan’s habit to shift blame elsewhere, ignoring its own policies. Pakistan’s information minister, Attaullah Tarar, commented on social media that the talks “failed to bring about any workable solution.” There are reports that immediately after the failure of talks, the TTP began attacking Pakistan security force positions in KP. Inputs also mention that a senior member of ISIK was eliminated in Peshawar by unknown gunmen. He was responsible for coordinating attacks in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, who had earlier stated that the Taliban was “sitting on India’s lap,” now blamed India for the failure. He termed the Taliban as a “tool for New Delhi,” and threatened to obliterate it.
In a social media post displaying bravado, Asif said, “we have borne your treachery and mockery for too long, but no more.” This is the same Pakistan which was recently routed by both India and the Taliban. The biggest concern for Islamabad is that the Taliban are moving closer to Delhi, out of the sphere of their influence. This is vastly different from August 2021 when the Taliban forced the US to withdraw from the country and Pakistan believed it would remain under their control. The iconic photograph of the then Pakistani DG ISI, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, having tea in a Kabul hotel claiming all would be well is now haunting Pakistan. Adding to tensions is the ongoing deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan. India backed Afghanistan with its spokesperson mentioning, “India remains fully committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Afghanistan.” Pakistan has launched an internal social media campaign accusing the Taliban of being ungrateful.
The intent is to blame Kabul for collapse of talks, closure of border crossings and subsequent rise in prices of vegetables and daily needs in Pakistan. It is hoping to cover its diplomatic and military failures by blaming Kabul and New Delhi. Pakistan’s hopes for peace on its western borders, while tensions with India on its eastern front remain high, have ended. Afghanistan threatened Pakistan with strikes in Islamabad in case it targeted Kabul again, aware that the TTP possesses the resources to do so. The TTP is currently Pakistan’s biggest headache growing in strength by the day and hitting Pakistani bases at will. Pakistan is also threatening Afghanistan with economic strangulation and diplomatic isolation, in addition to military strikes.
It forgets that India has offered Afghanistan the use of Chabahar port and upgraded its embassy in Kabul. Iran-Afghan relations are also positive. Kabul is being wooed by New Delhi, Moscow and Beijing and hence, diplomatic isolation will never succeed. Militarily, Afghanistan conveyed a strong lesson to Pakistan, compelling it to approach West Asian nations to mediate. Pakistan has attempted to project in global bodies that Afghanistan is a threat to the region at large under the Taliban leadership. This has few takers. Any attempt to push a resolution in the UNSC against Afghanistan would fail as Russia and China would disagree. China has not commented adversely against Afghanistan despite attacks on Pakistan. It is also possible that the Pakistan delegation misbehaved with an intent to have talks fail deliberately, hoping to involve Donald Trump.
Trump, during his visit to Asia, has twice mentioned that he would bring about peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan. With Islamabad desperate to enhance ties with Washington, involving Trump and recommending him again for a Nobel would work to its benefit. The fact is that mediation by Trump would give recognition to the Taliban regime which it so desperately needs. This tension also comes at a time when Pakistan is planning on participating in the International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza by deploying around 20,000 troops (two divisions) based on a demand from Gulf nations which have no intention of being involved in the muddle there. The force would be compelled to target the same Hamas which they once supported against Israel. Pakistan cannot risk tensions with both its major neighbours, India and Afghanistan, and participate in the ISF.
It has been compelled to move its reserve formations from the LoC to the Afghan border. It is aware that a major terrorist strike on Indian soil could result in Operation Sindoor 2.0. At this stage it must carefully calibrate its actions. All India must do is continue supporting Afghanistan and enhance its ties with it.
(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)