Writing the obituary of political party is a highrisk exercise, but there is no denying the fact that the Bahujan Samaj Party ~ once the North Star for the politics of Scheduled Caste consolidation across a large swathe of India including most prominently the state of Uttar Pradesh ~ faces an existential crisis. The numbers tell their own story: From storming into power in the country’s most populous state in 2007 with 200-plus seats, the BSP was reduced to a single seat in the 2022 Assembly poll. The BSP did earlier manage to send 10 Lok Sabha members to Parliament in 2019, after being wiped out in the 2014 poll, but analysts agree that had more to do with its alliance with the Samajwadi Party than any comeback story. The fact that the SP won 111 seats in the 2022 Assembly poll to the BSP’s one only confirms the validity of this assessment. It is against this backdrop that the announcement by party chief Mayawati a few weeks ago that the BSP would contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha election on its own is significant.
Some critics say that Ms. Mayawati’s decision is no more than a bargaining ploy in the event of a fractured verdict in 2024; others point out that flipflops on such statements are routine in Indian politics. But those with a more nuanced understanding of Dalit identity politics in the Indian heartland are aware that this is the veritable last throw of the dice by the BSP supremo to keep her mobilisation model intact. The BSP, whether in UP or in adjoining Madhya Pradesh, and in Delhi and Punjab, has seen the BJP chip away at its core support base, much as it did to the Congress Dalit vote in the 1990s and early 2000s. There is logic in what Ms Mayawati is attempting, which is to shore up her core vote to live to fight another day. But the reason why this may prove tough to achieve is that the identity politics on which the BSP’s model was based ~ and which paid rich dividend in the past ~ is itself being dismantled across north India by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s overarching Hindutva umbrella that has made a focussed effort to bring SC/ST/OBC communities under it. Benefits of the Centre’s welfare schemes have helped cement these loyalties. The BJP’s remarkable electoral performances since 2014 bear testimony to this. An additional point to keep in mind is that even if the BSP manages to keep a section of Dalit, especially Jatav, loyalties intact, it wins only when the Muslim community joins forces with it. But from the Congress to the SP and even the Aam Aadmi Party, there are many contenders better placed to appeal for the minority vote. Lastly, the Opposition which is trying to cobble together an anti-BJP front clearly does not trust the BSP. Unless 2024 throws up a huge surprise, it is likely to confirm the BSP’s continued descent into political irrelevance.