The counting day on Monday delivered verdicts in four states and one Union Territory, but two outcomes stood out for their long-term political impact—the BJP’s landmark victory in West Bengal, where it is set to form its first government, and the dramatic entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in Tamil Nadu, disrupting the state’s entrenched two-party duopoly.
Several key trends emerged that are likely to influence upcoming Assembly polls as well as the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. One seems to be an apparent diminishing salience of the ‘M’ factor in Indian politics, including in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK—often perceived by critics as adopting an anti-Sanatan positioing—was defeated by the TVK, which avoided any such stance.
The emergence of the TVK also signaled a warning for traditional parties: if established players fail to deliver, voters will back possibilities that don’t carry political baggage. The elections also mark the political decline of several stalwarts, including Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala, and M.K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu, while the rise of leaders such as Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam and Suvendu Adhikari in West Bengal—providing hope to “outsiders” in the BJP.
Meanwhile, the Left this Monday lost its last footing in India.
The biggest story, however, is from West Bengal—the BJP’s toughest battle in this Assembly cycle, which also included Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry. The party faced a formidable opponent in Mamata Banerjee. While it relied on an alliance with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, remained relatively confident in Assam, and hoped to build on gains in Kerala, West Bengal was the state it concentrated maximum energy in.
In those terms, the day marked Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s first exit from 15 years in power in West Bengal in an election widely viewed as a referendum on her governance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal, and Home Minister Amit Shah’s political strategy. As the BJP consolidated its expansion in eastern India, Banerjee will now need to reposition herself, intensifying efforts to build a broader anti-BJP platform at the national level.
The result not only ends the TMC’s dominance in the state but also opens new opportunities for the BJP ahead of the 2029 general elections. West Bengal, which sends 42 MPs to Parliament, now becomes central to the BJP’s electoral calculations alongside Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Maharashtra (48), and Bihar (40)—the three states with maximum Lok Sabha constituencies. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC had won 29 seats from the state, making it a key opposition bloc along with the DMK and the Samajwadi Party.
By elevating the BJP from opposition to power, voters have signaled a willingness to embrace change—one that may not reverse quickly if past electoral trends hold. The victory also strengthens the BJP’s standing within the NDA and improves its long-term prospects in the Rajya Sabha. In fact, both Banerjee and Stalin now face the challenge of rebuilding their party organisations.
In Tamil Nadu, Vijay’s emergence as a serious political force has upended the Dravidian duopoly. His strong debut, reminiscent of past cinema-to-politics transitions led by stalwarts like M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa reshaped the electoral landscape, pushing both the DMK and the AIADMK into the opposition.
Although the TVK has fallen short of a majority, it has become a pivotal player. The Congress has extended support to Vijay, while both the DMK and the AIADMK are reportedly exploring options to secure his backing. With a significant legislative presence, the TVK is also positioned to send representatives to the Rajya Sabha, enhancing its national relevance. Stalin now faces critical questions about strengthening the DMK in the face of this new challenge.
While Puducherry saw a status quo verdict with the AINRC-led NDA alliance retaining power, Kerala offered a bright spot for the Opposition, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front returning to government. This adds to the Congress’s limited but important state-level presence, including Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka. However, its losses in Assam and setbacks in alliances in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry underscore its uneven performance.
At the national level, these wins may either challenge or help Opposition’s unity. The Left has lost ground to the Congress in Kerala, while in West Bengal, the Congress, Left parties, and TMC contested separately, exposing underlying tensions. West Bengal and Tamil Nadu have weakened the relative standing of the TMC and DMK within the opposition bloc, potentially triggering a recalibration of internal power equations.
Whether these developments lead to greater unity or deepen existing fault lines remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the BJP’s gains—especially in West Bengal—have significantly altered the national political landscape, setting the stage for a high-stakes run-up to the 2029 general elections.