Although Samrat Choudhary has always been seen as the strongest contender in the BJP for the post of Chief Minister, political observers remained cautious of naming him as one, noting that the BJP could still spring a surprise, as it has done in the past.
However, the media and political circles were abuzz with the speculation that the outgoing Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, was adamant on Samrat Choudhary succeeding him as the Chief Minister of Bihar.
It became more apparent on Tuesday morning when Nitish Kumar returned to the CM House after chairing his final cabinet meeting, where he announced the dissolution of the cabinet. Earlier, he was expected to go to Lok Bhavan and submit his resignation to Governor Syed Ata Hasnain.
There were rumours that Nitish Kumar would not resign until Samrat Choudhary was elected leader of the BJP Legislative Party. Some political observers were also of the opinion that Nitish Kumar would wait until Samrat Choudhary was elected leader, and then both leaders would go to Lok Bhavan together, where Nitish Kumar would submit his resignation letter, followed by Samrat Choudhary staking claim to form the new government in Bihar.
However, before the BJP Legislative Party meeting, key BJP leaders visited the CM House, after which Nitish Kumar went to Lok Bhavan to submit his resignation. He was accompanied by Samrat Choudhary.
Nitish Kumar’s preference for Samrat Choudhary is understandable. He wanted a leader who could further strengthen the caste equation of Lav-Kush, which has been his strongest support base throughout his two decades as Chief Minister of Bihar.
Several key political reasons are believed to be behind this. Nitish Kumar’s Lav-Kush (Kurmi-Kushwaha) social equation has been strengthened again with the emergence of Samrat Choudhary.
Samrat Choudhary redirected his aggressive political stance in support of Nitish Kumar’s governance, signaling his loyalty to the alliance. Their united stand against the Rashtriya Janata Dal also brought them closer.
In Bihar, the Lav-Kush social equation influences more than 7% of the vote share. Within this, the Kurmi community accounts for around 3%, while the Koiri community contributes approximately 4%. Together, these two groups have a significant impact on about 50 to 60 assembly seats.
By making Samrat Choudhary the Chief Minister, the Bharatiya Janata Party is aiming to consolidate support among the Koiri community to counter the RJD’s Yadav voter base.