Coming ahead of the Punjab Assembly elections early next year, the political upheaval in the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP on Thursday poses a major challenge to the ruling party in the state, raising questions about who stands to benefit politically. Will these seven Rajya Sabha MPs, most of them from Punjab, strengthen the BJP, a relatively minor force in the state? Will the Congress, AAP’s primary challenger, gain from the development? Or could it benefit the Shiromani Akali Dal, another significant player in Punjab politics? Alternatively, will Arvind Kejriwal gain voter sympathy due to what AAP leaders describe as a “betrayal by traitors”?
Notably, six of the seven MPs who joined the BJP on Thursday are from Punjab, with Swati Maliwal being the only one from Delhi. Addressing the media on Friday, AAP MP Sanjay Singh accused the BJP leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, of orchestrating “Operation Lotus” to destabilise the Bhagwant Mann government.
Sources suggest that the development opens new opportunities for the BJP in a state where it has traditionally struggled to establish a strong independent foothold. By inducting leaders with established local networks—such as Raghav Chadha, who was once seen as a de facto power centre in the Punjab government before relations soured—the move appears to be a calculated expansion strategy ahead of the polls.
For AAP, which swept to power in Punjab, the defections create a perception of internal instability at a critical juncture. Such optics could erode voter confidence, particularly if the opposition successfully frames the narrative around leadership issues. However, the party may still attempt to leverage a sympathy factor within Punjab’s unique political landscape, shaped by regional identity, agrarian concerns, and lingering distrust following the farm law protests.
Observers note that while the BJP may strengthen its organisational presence using the networks of new inductees, converting that into electoral gains will remain a complex task. Punjab’s voters are often seen as voting to defeat a party rather than to ensure another’s victory. This dynamic could position the Congress as a key beneficiary.
Despite recent setbacks, the Congress retains a strong legacy base across rural and semi-urban Punjab. Any erosion in AAP’s support may benefit the party, especially among voters reluctant to support the BJP. If it maintains internal cohesion and projects credible leadership, it could regain lost ground. The evolving situation also gives the Shiromani Akali Dal an opportunity to regain relevance by appealing to voters disillusioned with both AAP and Congress. A potential BJP–Akali Dal alliance could further alter the political landscape.