As Myanmar (also known as Burma) heads for the next general elections, its adjacent north-eastern region of India looks forward with a little hope for peace, progress and development in the e trouble-torn south Asian nation. The Buddhist majority country of nearly 55 million people will embrace the so-called national elections after the military coup in 2021 that ousted a democratically elected government in Naypyitaw. The proposed three-phase polling, starting on 28 December 2025, will however prevent several important political parties including Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy (NLD, which won the last general elections in 2020) from participating in the electoral exercise. The elections, where only the proxies of Burmese military junta are joining, will be one sided in their favour, and results are expected by the end of January.
However, the Land of Golden Pagodas is currently witnessing a civil war, where the Min Aung Hlaing-led Tatmadaw continue fighting against the people’s militia, resulting in thousands being killed, hundred thousand detained and millions displaced. In various battles under Operation 1027, which was launched in October 2023 by the anti-junta rebel groups, the government forces even faced humiliating defeats in some battle grounds. Currently half of the Burmese territories comprising important towns and military bases had gone out of the military’s control. The voting in those localities will be either impossible or lowly participating and hence a free, fair, and comprehensive election in the poverty stricken country still remains elusive. The junta-appointed Union Election Commission (UEC) prepares for the second and third phases on 11 and 25 January 2026, where the exercise is supposed to cover around 274 out of 330 townships. More precisely, millions of Myanmar nationals are now living abroad legally and illegally.
As the anti-junta people’s defense forces, ethnic armed groups and revolutionary organizations maintain significant influence across the international border localities, the voter registration as well as polling may be severely affected. The UEC had already deregistered a number of political parties citing the reasons for not fulfilling necessary criteria and 40 political parties, including the NLD, did not re-register with the Burmese electoral authority as the crackdown against pro-democracy armed resistance units continue putting over 22,000 political prisoners (including President U Win Myint, facing over a decade sentence, Nobel peace laureate Suu Kyi, imprisoned for 27 years, and a number of elected representatives) under detention. With only six political parties including the Tatmadaw-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party have been allowed to field candidates nationwide and nearly 50 other smaller political entities taking part in regional assemblies, the forthcoming elections will hardly enjoy due credibility. No less than 6,800 civilians were killed, 3.6 million displaced since the 2021 coup, and currently 20 million people are in desperate need of humanitarian assistance as the government forces continue crackdowns including air strikes on crowded places, hospitals, and even schools.
The critics and observers on Myanmar issues argue that any election held under the current circumstances cannot be inclusive or credible. Since the last coup, thousands of political activists, journalists, and ordinary citizens have been arrested, and many have been tortured or killed. Many Burmese citizens, who criticized the electoral process on social media, were sentenced to imprisonment. The number of victims may even increase in the coming days. Nevertheless, military dictator Hlaing and his associates will try to showcase the exercise as a successful venture with an aim to get legitimacy for their unlawful power grabbing. Lately, the junta has granted mass amnesty to another group of 3,085 political prisoners and dropped charges against 5,580 individuals paving their releases from different jails ahead of voting. Their release was sanctioned to help them exercise their franchises in elections and thus promoting goodwill among the electorates. However, they asked not to repeat the offense. All the neighboring countries including India, which has a major investment in the under-construction Kaladana multi-modal transit & transport riverine project, expressed their concern over the continued instability on border localities and also influx of Burmese migrants.
Political observers believe that the forthcoming elections will hardly help install a civilian regime, guided by the Parliamentary rules, and the military dictators will continue enjoying absolute political power. The current military chief may emerge as the new President of Myanmar and he would appoint someone from trusted followers as the top military commander. At the same time, the lawmakers (under the military-drafted 2008 Constitution reserving space for 25 per cent members in the Parliament and key ministries to the defense personnel) will probably function as mute spectators while dealing with any military-involved developments. It’s a matter of serious concern that the socio-political turmoil in Myanmar has affected the north-eastern States with an unabated influx of refugees precisely into Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. With more to it, a huge volume of narcotics continue entering the region through the 1643 kilometre porous land borders, where some militants have reportedly joined hands with the illicit drugs mafia. As New Delhi expects a free, fair and inclusive elections in Myanmar, the north-eastern residents will hope (may be against hope) for a stable democratic regime in Naypyidaw so that the bilateral trades and other engagements receive a comfortable ride for the collective benefit of nearly 60 million people in the far eastern part of Bharat.
(THE WRITER IS A GUWAHATI-BASED SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STATESMAN)