As a nationalist political force in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently secured victories in two important legislative Assembly elections in eastern states bordering Bangladesh, prompting mixed reactions in Dhaka. The rise of the BJP in West Bengal, after having remained in power at the Centre in New Delhi for more than a decade, has been viewed not merely as an electoral victory but as a shift in the political equation of eastern India, where Assam was also retained by the saffron party-led alliance for a third consecutive term.
The BJP, along with its allies, came to power at the Centre after the 2014 general election and registered victory in the Assam Assembly polls two years later. Soon, all seven northeastern states, except Mizoram, came under the BJP’s political umbrella. However, Bengal proved to be a far tougher electoral battleground for the party, as the state had remained under the control of the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress since the 2011 Assembly elections. Throughout her tenure, Mamata positioned herself as a strong opponent of the BJP and frequently resisted the implementation of several schemes initiated by the Union government in New Delhi.
From opposing border fencing along the India-Bangladesh border in Bengal to restricting the implementation of public welfare schemes such as Ayushman Bharat, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Krishak Bima Yojana, Vishwakarma Scheme, and Ujjwala Yojana, the Trinamul government often maintained an adversarial stance towards the Centre. Eventually, the BJP succeeded in winning over 200 seats in the 294-member Bengal Assembly, while in Assam the BJP-led alliance crossed the 100-seat mark in the 126-member Assembly, with BJP candidates alone winning 82 constituencies.
Millions of BJP supporters are now closely watching the initiatives being undertaken by the governments in Kolkata and Guwahati, particularly those related to sustainable development, welfare, and security against illegal infiltration from neighbouring Bangladesh. Bengal’s new Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari has already announced urgent measures to facilitate the transfer of land required for fencing the India-Bangladesh border, an issue that had faced resistance during the Trinamul regime. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has similarly adopted measures aimed at fulfilling electoral promises, including safeguarding indigenous populations from Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators.
A number of radical elements in Bangladesh have expressed apprehension that the BJP’s dominance in Bengal, Assam, and Tripura would intensify anti-Muslim narratives reinforced by communal political mobilisation in the name of security. Some even publicly warned that if Muslim residents of the region faced atrocities because of the BJP’s rise, there could be repercussions in Bangladesh, implying retaliatory persecution against Hindu residents and attacks on places of worship. A few protesters also took to the streets in Dhaka expressing dissatisfaction over the defeat of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress. They alleged electoral fraud and demanded that Mamata be reinstated.
Bangladesh media reports, quoting local sources, claimed that more than 2,500 people had been pushed into Bangladesh last year from the Assam border alone, during a period in which Sarma was viewed as particularly active on the issue. During the election campaign as well, Sarma regularly made remarks targeting Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators. He publicly stated that such infiltrators would be sent back to Bangladesh without waiting for bilateral diplomatic arrangements. However, these efforts reportedly faced obstacles, as many of those individuals allegedly re-entered India through the Bengal border, with the Mamata government perceived as sympathetic towards illegal immigrants.
Several Bangladeshi activists also expressed fears that casualties along the border, particularly involving firing by Border Security Force personnel, could increase in the future. Meanwhile, responding to recent remarks from Dhaka following the BJP’s victory in Bengal and Assam, the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi reiterated that the repatriation of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants remains a core issue requiring cooperation from the neighbouring country. A ministry spokesperson stated that New Delhi had been awaiting Dhaka’s response for years regarding nationality verification of over 2,860 individuals.
India expressed hope that Bangladesh would expedite the verification process to facilitate repatriation in accordance with established laws and bilateral arrangements. At the same time, the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, welcomed the Bengal election outcome and expressed hope that relations between Bangladesh and India would remain cordial. The BNP, which won the February 2026 general election by securing over 200 seats in the 300-member Jatiya Sansad, while Jamaat-e-Islami emerged as the second-largest party with 68 seats, also congratulated Adhikari on assuming office.
Several BNP leaders suggested that Dhaka could now expect progress on the long-delayed Teesta water-sharing agreement, which Mamata Banerjee had opposed during her tenure as Bengal Chief Minister. It is worth noting that the Teesta River originates in Sikkim in the Himalayan region and flows through Bengal before entering northern Bangladesh, where it merges with the Brahmaputra and ultimately flows into the Bay of Bengal. New Delhi and Dhaka had nearly finalised a revised agreement in 2011, under which India would receive 42.5 per cent of the water and Bangladesh 37.5 per cent during the lean season from December to March. However, Mamata opposed the arrangement.
Given the importance of Teesta waters to agriculture and livelihoods affecting nearly 170 million people in Bangladesh, leaders of the ruling party in Dhaka are now hoping for a more favourable agreement under the new political circumstances. Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has reportedly been staying unofficially in India, also congratulated the BJP on its sweeping electoral victory in Bengal. The daughter of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman conveyed her best wishes for the prosperity of Bengal and India while congratulating the electoral winners. Hasina, who is reportedly facing death sentences in Bangladesh over allegations of crimes against humanity during the anti-government uprising of July-August 2024, is said to be planning a return to Bangladesh once democracy is restored and political rights are respected in the Muslim-majority nation. Her possible return, some observers believe, may also encourage exiled Bangladeshi author Taslima Nasrin to return to her country after decades abroad, including years spent in India.
THE WRITER IS A GUWAHATI-BASED SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STATESMAN