The voters of Assam have shown an extraordinary commitment for electoral politics, as was revealed on 9 April 2026, when an all-time high turnout of over 85 per cent was recorded. For the single-phase polling, 2.5 crore citizens (including 1.25 crore female voters and 6.4 lakh first-time voters aged 18-19 years) were registered as eligible to elect 126 representatives for the State Legislative Assembly.
Over 700 candidates representing different political parties and independent contenders remain in the fray, their fate being declared on 4 May. In fact, that is the date the Election Commission of India has fixed for counting of votes for Assam, as well as Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal after the entire vote casting is completed on 29 April. Many Assembly constituencies in Assam, namely Dalgaon, Jaleshwar, Srijangram, Mankachar, Golakganj, Laharighat, Chenga and Goalpara East have recorded over 90 per cent polling, whereas urban localities in Kamrup and Kamrup (metropolitan) districts showed a slightly lower turnout (around 80 per cent in Dimoria, Dispur, Guwahati Central, Jalukbari and New Guwahati seats).
Assam witnessed a significant voter response in 2016 (84.72 per cent), when the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government in Dispur was replaced (after his third consecutive term as the state’s Chief Minister) by a new-found alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party. Even in 1985, when Assamese voters brought a new regional party (Asom Gana Parishad, born out of the historic Assam agitation) to replace the Hiteswar Saikia government, the voter turnout was 78.37 per cent. With high voter participation, political observers in the region have put forward two completely opposite predictions as to which party will emerge victorious and who will be the king for the next five years.
One group is expecting the return of the BJP-led government, while the other has estimated that the Indian National Congress-led opposition alliance will spring a surprise. A sizable population of Assam openly supported the saffron alliance, citing reasons of an improved safety-security scenario, sustained development, and impartial welfare initiatives for the entire population. An aggressive campaign by incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, to which was added colour by the subsequent presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and other senior BJP leaders, is being cited as the reason for more voters to have reached the polling booths.
Moreover, pertinent issues like anti-influx measures, the implementing of a number of peace accords, wide-ranging development, and public welfare initiatives is being conjectured as having attracted the attention of the indigenous population. Hence, the first group of analysts argue that the larger participation of voters has indicated confidence in the ruling government, enough to term it as a pro-incumbency wave. They also point out that the mainstream Assamese voters usually show reluctance for participating in any electoral process (compared to the Bangladesh/East Pakistan-origin Muslim population living in Assam since the days of independence), but this time they came together to elect their representatives, keeping an eye on the future of the coming generation.
Additionally, the special review of voters’ list prior to the polls and an increased awareness among the electorate in general also contributed to visibly enhancing voter turnout. The other group has tried to establish the scenario in favour of the Opposition alliance, led by the INC, citing reasons of a decade-long anti-incumbency, continued atrocities against the religious minority population, and personal corruption and mismanagement of government funds by CM Sarma and his family. Assam Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi went vocal against Sarma right after his party senior Pawan Khera made sensational public allegations against Sarma and his wife Riniki Bhuyan.
Just three days before the polling date, Khera organised a Press conference in New Delhi (and later in Guwahati) to claim that the CM’s wife possesses multiple passports and unaccounted assets in foreign lands (which invited court notices initiated by Sarma to him). Gogoi opined that since Khera’s Press meet, Sarma appeared panicked and was making abusive public statements, as well as intimidating remarks against some media personnel. Gogoi was supported by political leaders belonging to the Congress-led alliance, including the Asom Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal. BJP Assam president Dilip Saikia, while talking to local media persons, lately expressed confidence that the saffron party-led alliance would do better this time.
Terming the exceptional voter turnout in a peaceful ambience as a pro-BJP factor, Saikia argued that his party along with the allies would cross 75 (total score in the 2021Assembly election) easily this time. He also criticised the Congress for bringing the issue of Zubeen Garg’s controversial death last year in Singapore for political gains. The Congress manifesto promised to facilitate justice for Zubeen within 100 days if voted to power. Zubeen’s widow Garima Saikia Garg and close relatives had earlier appealed to all political parties to refrain from politicising his untimely death for electoral gains. While casting votes in Guwahati, Garima and Zubeen’s sister Palmee Borthakur repeated their call and expressed confidence in the trials currently going on in local court.
Meanwhile, Jorhat constituency in eastern Assam attracted the attention of the media after the sitting BJP legislator, Hitendra Nath Goswami, and his opponent, Congress parliamentarian Gaurav Gogoi, have shown restrained campaigning with no personal attacks. A photograph, in which Goswami and Gogoi were seen sitting together having tea surrounded by supporters with smiling faces, went viral on social media. There are some constituencies which drew voters because of the array of prominent candidates.
They include Sibsagar (where the sitting legislator Akhil Gogoi is facing BJP nominee Kushal Dowari and AGP candidate Pradip Hazarika), Dispur (where parliamentarian Pradyut Bordoloi, who had recently joined the saffron brigade, faces Congress nominee Mira Barthakur and former BJP leader Jayanta Kumar Das), Jalukbari (where the CM is a confident candidate), Haflong (where minister Nandita Garlosa is a Congress nominee).
The writer is Guwahati based special representative of the Statesman)