The two big questions haunting political circles in South Asia are whether India will extradite Sheikh Hasina to Dhaka after a court there sentenced her to death and what will happen next to Bangladesh which is already in the throes of a political and economic crisis.
India in its answer to Bangladesh government’s call to “immediately hand over convicted individuals”, seems to have completely side-stepped the demand and merely pointed out that it has has “noted the verdict announced by the ‘International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh’ concerning Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.”
The Indian government’s message to Dhaka, following the latest judgment, appears unmistakable: “You may place any demand you wish, but India will take its own decisions in its own way.”
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, former Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs and Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh told UNI that New Delhi has implicitly already conveyed to Dhaka that the bilateral extradition treaty contains an exemption clause that bars the extradition of individuals facing political or politically motivated judgments.
Agreed Dr Smruti S Pattanaik, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parriker-Institute of Defense Studies & Analysis, “If we read the two statements – one by Bangladesh and the other by India on the issue of extradition, they seem to be talking past each other.”
Pattanaik said New Delhi is likely to wait for an elected government to assume office in Bangladesh before considering any significant political move, though routine trade and people-to-people contacts will continue unaffected.
India of course has a long history of giving refuge to heads of state and their families, fleeing turmoil or war in their lands.
In 1950, King Tribhuvan of Nepal sought refuge in India, which helped trigger a popular revolt against the ruling Rana regime, leading to the monarchy’s restoration to power.
Similarly, in 1959, India granted political asylum to the 14th Dalai Lama and provided refuge to tens of thousands of Tibetans escaping Chinese rule.
Following the rise of Taliban in 1996, India had offered asylum to the family of former Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah, who was killed by the Taliban. The family has resided in Delhi since.
Analysts here warned that the latest developments could further destabilise Bangladesh’s already fragile political landscape and undermine investor confidence.
Bangladesh, Chakravarty pointed out is grappling with severe economic stress marked by rising prices, unemployment, and sharply slowing growth. “On top of that, there has been mobocracy, chaos on the streets, and deepening internal strife among political parties,” he said.
Chakravarty too felt the political churn in Bangladesh would now intensify and added that the judgment is likely to heighten the rival Bangladesh National Party’s longstanding fear that its support base may be eroded by the Jamaat-e-Islami, a concern that could reshape political alignments in the coming months.
In the days leading up to the ruling, the now-banned Awami League called for peaceful nationwide shutdowns, strikes and mass protests. Dhaka and several other city centres also witnessed repeated crude bomb explosion, arson attacks and acts of sabotage by unknown miscreants, that have put police and paramilitary units on high alert.
“The verdict comes at a time when the Awami League has witnessed a revival since the August 2024 movement,” Pattanaik said.The party which had led Bangladesh to freedom, she pointed out, has become increasingly active, organising demonstrations across the country.
Its renewed political vigour, began after the fledgling political party NCP, set up by members of the Mohammad Yunus interim government, attempted a march on Gopalganj, a bastion of the Awami League.
“Since then, the Awami League has carried out various political actions nationwide, and this verdict will further energise its cadres,” she said. Analysts also raised concerns about the integrity of the trial process, pointing to several procedural flaws.
According to Pattanaik, the Bangladesh government appointed the defence counsel, refusing to allow international lawyers, including from Great Britain, whom the Awami League wished to engage for Sheikh Hasina.
The defence was also given extremely limited time to file objections or prepare submissions. “Consequently, the judgment itself is flawed,” she said.
Top officials in South Bloc said New Delhi will continue to watch events closely as Bangladesh enters a volatile period marked by legal disputes, street unrest and an uncertain political transition.
With questions over the legitimacy of the verdict and the future of the Awami League still unresolved, India’s response and the pace of Bangladesh’s return to political stability, may well hinge on how quickly an elected government takes charge in Dhaka and whether that election is free, fair and inclusive, three key words that India has been insisting on from the beginning.