The world is furious and anxious at the impending fuel crisis in the aftermath of the forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. Energy security of almost all nations is at risk and threatened is the world economic order which could be thrown in chaotic disarray, the dominoes hurting the markets and the political stability of the world.
It’s Ukraine-Russia consequences redux, only 10 times expanded.
But, more than oil, the question is way more existential in nature for the Gulf countries. You can’t drink oil! And, your water is not natural, but mostly manufactured in some 400 desalination plants. What if Iran hits water, after oil?
The question is scary indeed. And, how.
A leaked 2008 US diplomatic cable on the water vulnerabilities of Riyadh extrapolated that if the Jubail desalination plant that provides over 90 per cent of Riyadh’s drinking water supply be debilitated by any means—physical or cyber—would force evacuation of the Saudi capital within a week.
No less, the consequent scarcity of drinking water would destroy the “current structure of the Saudi government”.
The overall figure of desalinated drinking water dependency for Saudi Arabia is 70 per cent; 90 per cent for Kuwait; 42 per cent for UAE; and 86 per cent for Oman.
The Pacific Institute’s ‘Water Conflict Chronology’— it is the world’s most comprehensive open-source database on water-related violence—gives an insight into what could happen to the Gulf countries if their water is struck, instead or in addition their oil capacities. The index has mapped instances where “water and water systems have been a trigger , or casualty , or weapon of violence.” Their societies will crumble, simply put, followed by political upheaval and eruption of large-scale violence.
“The latest update, released November 11, 2025, brings the database current through the end of 2024, with some additional events occurring in the first few months of 2025. In this update, the Pacific Institute added 844 new instances of violent conflicts associated with water resources and water systems. The update demonstrates a disturbing trend, with violence over water continuing to rise rapidly in 2024. 420 events were reported in 2024, an increase of nearly 20% over the number reported in 2023,” the latest report said.
“2010, only 21 events were documented. From 2011 through 2018, annual totals climbed steadily, surpassing 150 events by 2018. A brief decline occurred in 2019 and 2020, when events dropped to 137 and 95, respectively —likely reflecting a temporary easing of violence in parts of the Middle East and the global slowdown caused by the COVID – 19 pandemic. The trend reversed in 2021 with 139 recorded events, followed by dramatic surges of 70% and 50% in 2022 and 2023. Growth continued in 2024, with an additional 18% increase over the previous year. These recent spikes correspond with the intensification of conflicts in Israel – Palestine and Russia – Ukraine, as w ell as escalating disputes over inadequate water access in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, and mounting tensions over drought – driven scarcity in India, Iran, and other regions.”
The thing to observe is that the report has documented the rise since 2018, almost the same year as the diplomatic cable on Riyadh got leaked.