Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), after being in political oblivion for nearly two decades, has come back to power with a landslide victory and seems poised to restore law and order as one of its most prioritised tasks as the lawlessness in the last 18 months under the interim government was far from normal.The transition from the interim government to the BNP take over has been smooth, free from any violence and allayed apprehensions of any political confrontation.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman seems to have done his homework well and his takeover, forming the Cabinet with careful calibration, shows that though he was away from the country for the last 17 years yet he maintained close contacts with party’s rank and file who just pieced all the fallen pieces together and a new regime is now in place though saddled with numerous challenges.
Within a day of taking over, Prime Minister Rahman went on air delivering a no-nonsense televised address to the people of Bangladesh where he outlined his commitment that he is taking highest measures to ensure peace and security in public life and also said that the government began its journey with a fragile economy battered by corruption and misrule of the previous fascist regime, weakened governance structures, and deteriorating law and order situation.
Stressing his government’s vision, he underscored that the rule of law would now be the guiding principle in running the state. He reiterated his commitment of building a self-reliant, safe, humane, and a democratic Bangladesh.Significantly, Tarique said he wanted to deliver a message to the nation that this country belongs to all, regardless of their party affiliation, religion, or caste, or whether they live in the hills or on the plains. This is also perhaps a signal to suggest that minorities would not be neglected.
Tarique called on traders to remain vigilant so that essential commodity prices stay within the reach of ordinary people particularly during the month of Ramadan.Meanwhile, the first meeting of the Cabinet was held (February 18) under the Chairmanship of the Prime Minister. Members and Advisors from the new Cabinet participated. Three priorities were decided for implementation. They are: controlling the prices of essential commodities, improving the law and order situation, and maintaining a normal supply of electricity and energy. Importantly, after the meeting with the new Cabinet members and Advisors, the new Prime Minister also held a meeting with the respective Secretaries.
The people in Bangladesh, in the meantime, are hoping that Prime Minister Rahman will maintain this momentum of promising good work as the expectations have gone very high. Hence, the new BNP dispensation will be under constant pressure for good governance specially for a sound law and order situation because the countrymen suffered a lot in the one and half years under the interim government.
Tarique is conscious about it and knows very well that unless he meets the expectations of the people, their hopes will be belied and that may dent his reputation in terms of promises and assurances made.This apart, another pressure factor stems from the presence of Jamaat-e-Islami (Jel) which has done electorally very well bagging well over 70 seats boosting their morale and strengthening their ideological commitments. With sizeable presence on the floor of Parliament, they are likely to make BNP on the defensive for addressing core issues including corruption and price rise.
That is possibly why, to counter Jamaat, the Prime Minister at his first Cabinet meeting as also on his televised address, highlighted priorities like these.On its part, Jamaat has come to stay and it is no hurry at all to act rash or on impulse. It will move with abundant caution to reinforce its position in the long run and for this, it is consolidating its gains on the ground level, working systematically and in an organised manner. This being the honeymoon period for BNP and Jel, all looks hunky dory but the real test between them will be seen when the Jamaat steps up its rhetoric and not easily allow the BNP to breathe easy.
The BNP does have more numbers in Parliament but if the poll results are any indication, then Jamaat continues to be a force to reckon with and in all likelihood, will periodically make the BNP its presence felt.Under the circumstances, the BNP also has to navigate very dexterously as on one hand, eyes of the people who are voted for it to power will continue to closely stare at the government’s performance and on the other, Jamaat will continue to hold BNP accountable for any amiss that may occur even inadvertently.It is also pertinent to flag the security concerns for India under the new dispensation.
India has moved intelligently and cautiously by sending the Foreign Minister of Dhaka in the aftermath of Khaleda Zia’s demise and detailed no other than the Speaker of Parliament for the swearing in ceremony with the Foreign Secretary in tow. Also, it was a good gesture on part of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to have invited Tarique Rahman and his family to visit India. This has surely augured well.It would, however, appear that Tarique Rahman will first set his house in order bringing some semblance to the fledgling law and order scene and then embark upon his attempts to reset ties with India.
Strategists meanwhile are intently watching how he does a balancing act for repairing ties with India and at the same time respond to the overtures repeatedly received from Pakistan and China.Very recently, the Chinese leadership including the Chinese Ambassador in Dhaka reiterated China’s commitment towards renewed friendship with Bangladesh as also Pakistan’s continued approaches which had already started taking roots during the interim government of Dhaka.
It is a tight call and much will determine on his stance with these countries in days to come. Also, judging by preliminary indications, Tarique will try to revive the spirit of SAARC founded by his later father General Ziaur Rahman thus trying to foster a new inter-country relationship amongst the South Asian neighbours.Interestingly, Pakistan has already whipped up a narrative trying to suggest that while Awami League (AL) under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Sheikh Hasina had always been pro India, BNP has been a natural “ally” of Pakistan as former President Ziaur Rahman had served Pakistan as a Major in the erstwhile Pakistani Army before Bangladesh came into being.Pakistani press, particularly the social media, is full of such news.
It makes Tarique’s chart of external priorities a bit hard to wade through difficult waters.In the meantime, it would be interesting to watch how things unfold in the coming months. Incidentally, Tarique Rahman is often blamed for his Pakistan connections for facilitating security linked irritants for India when the BNP was in power under Khaleda Zia from 1991 to 1996 and again from 2001 to 2006. This stigma perhaps needs to be shed in due course to be seen and to be believed for further confidence building measures.
(Writer, is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor to Mauritius. The views are personal)