When Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds his summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who flew in on Wednesday, what the world will look out for will be whether Asia’s “Big 2” will manage to create an architecture of economic security and defence cooperation in an era of uncertain geopolitics disrupting markets and supply chains.
Unlike earlier India-Japan summits that revolved around infrastructure projects, high-speed rail or broad strategic declarations, this meeting comes amid a series of cascading global crises that have blurred the line between economics and national security.
The Trump administration’s erratic tariffs, recurring conflict in the Gulf, increased vulnerability of maritime trade routes, and China’s growing strategic and economic heft have forced both New Delhi and Tokyo to rethink long-held assumptions about globalisation.
The result is likely to be a summit focused on insulating their economies from external shocks and an attempt to build defence cooperation between the two major regional powers.
“Prime Minister Takaichi, like her former mentor Shinzo Abe realises the need to break away from the post-World War barriers to defence collaborations. There is a fundamental convergence of security interests – both economic and defence – for both nations … and I see that being taken forward,” Pinak R Chakravarty, former Secretary- Economic Relations in the MEA told The Statesman.
The agenda itself reflects that shift. Officials in both capitals have signalled that discussions will centre on semiconductors, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, clean energy, investment, innovation and digital infrastructure as also on defence and a possible Yen-Rupee trade deal.
Admitted Chakravarty, “There is talk of a Yen-Rupee deal, let’s see how that progresses.”
An agreement on AI cooperation, alongside a broader declaration on economic security, would represent more than just another bilateral initiative.
“It would acknowledge that future geopolitical competition will increasingly be fought through supply chains, computing power and access to strategic resources rather than through conventional military strength alone,” the senior diplomat said.
Despite impressive economic growth, New Delhi remains heavily dependent on imported technologies and vulnerable supply chains. Japanese investment and technological expertise offer an opportunity to accelerate domestic manufacturing in sectors that have become strategically indispensable.
Cooperation on semiconductor production, critical minerals and advanced digital technologies fits neatly with India’s broader ambition to become an alternative manufacturing hub as multinational companies diversify away from excessive dependence on China.
Energy security has become an equally pressing concern for both nations, MEA officials pointed out.
The recent crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz exposed just how vulnerable both India and Japan remain to disruptions in West Asian energy supplies.
Even though an interim understanding has temporarily reduced tensions with Iran, few policymakers believe the risks have disappeared. Another disruption to shipping lanes could again send oil prices soaring, worsen inflation and strain already fragile currencies.
As both economies heavily dependent on imported hydrocarbons, coordinating energy planning has become a strategic necessity rather than merely an economic preference.
That explains why discussions are expected to include contingency planning, LNG cooperation and market intelligence-sharing. Such mechanisms may appear technical, but they represent an effort to create resilience against geopolitical shocks that neither country can control.
The summit also marks an evolution in the India-Japan partnership as defence cooperation may be discussed.
New Delhi already has a defence cooperation pact of a kind with Tokyo. “There is a strong chance of a two way way collaboration in defence manufacturing,” said Dr Rajaram Panda, formerly of the Institute of Defence Studies and an expert on East Asia.
Officials said as Takaichi has already held talks with her Australian counterpart, she can be expected to further talks on Quad or Quad like architecture for the Indo-Pacific while taking to Modi.
“Under the late Shinzo Abe, the relationship acquired a strategic character. Abe championed the concept of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, revitalised the Quad and positioned India as an indispensable partner in balancing China’s growing influence across Asia,” officials said.
Abe’s vision rested on strengthening coalitions without provoking direct confrontation.
Analysts said Takaichi inherited that strategic framework “but appears intent on giving it greater economic substance.”
Although initially regarded as a hardliner on China, her government has largely avoided dramatic escalation with Beijing.
Instead, Tokyo has concentrated on reducing strategic dependence while maintaining economic engagement where possible, a policy that in many ways resembles the balancing act India is known for.
Neither government seeks outright economic decoupling from China. Both understand that such an objective would be prohibitively expensive and economically disruptive.
“Instead, they are pursuing selective diversification by building alternative supply chains in strategically sensitive sectors while preserving commercial relations where feasible,” said officials.
This week’s discussions are expected to deepen cooperation in defence manufacturing, maritime security, strategic technologies and interoperability between their armed forces.
“Maritime security, freedom of navigation and resilience against economic coercion are likely to feature prominently in the discussions,” agreed officials.
The Modi-Takaichi summit is likely to reinforce evolution of the Quad, a grouping comprising Japan, India, Australia and the US, and emphasise that strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific will increasingly be waged through economic statecraft rather than old fashioned military deployments alone.