When US President Donald Trump says “I may do it, I may not do it”, it is not just rhetoric. It is probably a tactic. And it has a history.
Political scientists call it the “madman theory”. It is a strategy where a leader tries to convince adversaries that he is unpredictable, even irrational, and therefore capable of anything. The aim is simple: force the other side to back down before things spiral.
The playbook goes back to Richard Nixon and the Vietnam War.
In 1968, as the war dragged on with no clear end, Nixon privately told his aides to project an image of unpredictability. The idea was to make North Vietnam believe he could take extreme steps if pushed too far.
Nixon’s approach was blunt. As one account recalls, he told Henry Kissinger to tell North Vietnamese negotiators that Nixon was “crazy” and that “you don’t know what he’s going to do”, so they would come to the table before things escalated further. Political scientists later described this as the “madman theory”.
The message was quietly passed to both Hanoi and Moscow. The hope was that fear, not negotiation, would force a breakthrough.
It did not quite work.
Despite Nixon’s posturing, the war dragged on for years. In 1972, the US launched heavy bombing campaigns over North Vietnam to pressure talks. A peace deal eventually followed, but critics pointed out that its terms were not significantly different from what had been on the table earlier.
The strategy created noise, fear and destruction, but not necessarily a decisive advantage.
That history now shadows Trump’s approach to Iran.
From threats of “ending” Iran to sudden reversals and surprise strikes, the pattern has been consistent. Allies are unsettled, adversaries are watching, and the line between calculated unpredictability and personal impulse is often hard to read.
There is one key difference, though. Nixon’s “madman” image was carefully constructed behind closed doors. Trump’s unpredictability is public, repeated, and part of his political persona.
And that raises the bigger question.
If everyone already knows the playbook, does the “madman theory” still work, or does it start looking less like strategy and more like instability?