More than 30 people were killed and around 160 injured after a blast hit devotees during Friday prayers at a mosque in Islamabad’s Tarlai Kalan area, triggering a swift response from Pakistan that blamed India and Afghanistan within hours of the attack.
The explosion took place at the Khadja Tul Kubra Mosque, where worshippers had gathered for prayers. Even before a preliminary probe could begin, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khwaja Asif accused the Afghan Taliban and India of being behind the strike. Pakistan, however, did not acknowledge any intelligence failure or examine the possibility that terror groups it has nurtured over the years may have turned against it.
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ISKP or TTP suspected, no claim of responsibility so far
An assessment by Indian agencies suggests that the attack could be the work of either the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Both groups, however, have not claimed responsibility for the blast.
Officials said the pattern of the attack and the targeting of Shia devotees point towards the involvement of extremist groups known for sectarian violence. At the same time, agencies do not rule out the possibility that the incident may have been used as a diversion to shift focus from losses suffered by Pakistani security forces in Balochistan.
Indian officials have questioned why Pakistan was quick to blame India and Afghanistan while remaining silent on intelligence lapses. An official noted that they are not speaking about the intelligence failure, and one has to understand if this miss was deliberate or not.
Mounting pressure on Pakistan’s security establishment
The Pakistan establishment, whose de facto head is Field Marshal Asim Munir, has faced repeated setbacks in recent months. These began with India’s Operation Sindoor and have since expanded into conflicts with multiple groups.
Pakistan is currently battling the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), the TTP and the Afghan Taliban. In addition, protests have intensified in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), where intelligence officials say the situation is increasingly volatile and could escalate further.
If the Islamabad attack is eventually traced to ISKP, officials believe it would indicate that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)’s strategy has backfired. ISKP has historically distrusted the Pakistan establishment and, like the TTP, seeks to establish rule under Sharia law.
Failed tactical alignment and its fallout
The ISI had briefly attempted to rope in ISKP fighters to operate alongside Lashkar-e-Taiba against the Afghan Taliban and the TTP. According to officials, this approach collapsed as ISKP once again demonstrated that it could not be relied upon.
ISKP had agreed to the arrangement due to its hostility towards the Afghan Taliban and in the expectation that Pakistan would support its campaign. That support, however, did not materialise. Moreover, sections of the Islamic State, particularly those linked to Syria and Iraq, opposed any alliance with Pakistan, arguing that ISKP’s core objectives were being diluted.
An official said it was too early to conclusively state whether ISKP carried out the attack, but added that the blast bore several of the group’s known operational signatures.
Narrative-building amid internal security concerns
Analysts cited in the assessment said the quick attribution of blame by Munir reflected an attempt to divert attention from multiple internal challenges, including Balochistan and rising unrest in PoK, while pushing a narrative against India and the Afghan Taliban.
The attack comes at a time when Pakistan has allowed Jaish-e-Mohammad to hold radical rallies and has sought to provoke sentiment in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Officials said the approach appeared aimed at creating unrest and attributing it to India.
In the process, Pakistan failed to assess its own internal security vulnerabilities, with the blast in a densely populated urban area underscoring the scale of the challenge, experts said.