Cuba may fall as early as this Summer, the Donald Trump-led administration believes, preparing military planning exercises to control the chaos on the island if it spirals out of control, Axios reported, citing US officials familiar with internal discussions on the matter.
The report, however, claimed that no military action had been approved hitherto since President Trump is said to be favouring a controlled political transition, rather than direct military action.
According to the Axios report, a senior administration official described the White House strategy towards Havana as “accelerationism” — Washington was deliberately tightening screws on the island nation one twist at a time.
“But we don’t want to kill off the regime just yet. There’s a method to this. It’s in stages,” the official said.
Accelerationism — White House has pivoted heavily on economic pressure, sanctions and isolating the supposed Cuban military-linked business empire known as GAESA (Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A), which controls large parts of the island’s economy.
1. Cuba’s internal situation has worsened considerably since the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro earlier this year, which ended subsidised Venezuelan oil shipments that had long helped keep the Cuban economy afloat.
2. Inside the administration, officials have reportedly debated how the US should respond if worsening shortages of food, fuel and electricity trigger mass protests during the summer months.
3. Last month, the US Southern Command, which oversees military operations in the Caribbean, held a multiagency “tabletop” exercise to prepare for military action in Cuba, one of the senior US officials said.
“Everything is on the table, but no invasion is planned or imminent,” the official said. “When POTUS says go, we’re ready for anything.”
One source involved in the discussions said officials were particularly concerned about the risk of demonstrations being met with violent repression. “It’s going to be hot. People won’t have electricity. Food spoils without refrigeration. People get angry. They can take to the streets,” the source said.
Another advisor, however, warned against any prolonged military involvement, saying Trump did not want “boots on the ground for more than 48 hours”.
4. The pressure campaign intensified earlier this month when Trump signed an executive order targeting companies doing business with GAESA through secondary sanctions. Several international firms, including shipping and mining companies, have reportedly already suspended operations linked to Cuba.
5. State Secretary Marco Rubio, one of the architects of the Trump administration’s Cuba policy, has publicly accused the so-called conglomerate of enriching Cuba’s elite while ordinary citizens continue facing shortages and blackouts.
6. The administration has also moved against members of Cuba’s ruling establishment, including unsealing a murder indictment against former leader Raul Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown case.
Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla has accused the US of manufacturing a narrative to justify intervention and destabilisation. “The politics are complicated on both sides of the Strait of Florida,” one US official said. “But we have time. The regime doesn’t.”